IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finsta/v5y2009i1p57-88.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of industry consolidation and deposit insurance reform on the resiliency of the U.S. bank insurance fund

Author

Listed:
  • Jones, Kenneth D.
  • Oshinsky, Robert C.

Abstract

We examine the effects of structural change in the U.S. banking industry, as well as key regulatory changes, including recently enacted deposit insurance reform legislation, on the resiliency of the FDIC-administered bank insurance fund (BIF) by estimating and comparing the probability of BIF insolvency over time. We do this using a Markov-switching model that relies on historical patterns of BIF disbursements to define the probability of switching among three "states" of the banking industry's financial health. Monte Carlo simulations are then performed to project the financial condition of the BIF over a 50-year period. Our results indicate that the insolvency risk to the bank insurance fund has increased significantly due to industry consolidation, and is mainly due to the concentration of deposits in the 10 largest U.S. banking companies. We also find that recent deposit insurance reforms will cause only a marginal reduction in the risk of BIF insolvency. The increased risk associated with a more concentrated industry structure simply dominates the reform effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, Kenneth D. & Oshinsky, Robert C., 2009. "The effect of industry consolidation and deposit insurance reform on the resiliency of the U.S. bank insurance fund," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 57-88, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:5:y:2009:i:1:p:57-88
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572-3089(08)00015-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shaffer, Sherrill, 1991. "Aggregate deposit insurance funding and taxpayer bailouts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 1019-1037, September.
    2. Darrell Duffie & Robert Jarrow & Amiyatosh Purnanandam & Wei Yang, 2008. "Market Pricing of Deposit Insurance," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 22, pages 551-577, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    5. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
    6. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June.
    7. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    8. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    9. Cooperstein Richard L. & Pennacchi George G. & Redburn F. Stevens, 1995. "The Aggregate Cost of Deposit Insurance: A Multiperiod Analysis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 242-271, July.
    10. Andrew Kuritzkes & Til Schuermann & Scott Weiner, 2005. "Deposit Insurance and Risk Management of the U.S. Banking System: What is the Loss Distribution Faced by the FDIC?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 217-242, September.
    11. Marcus, Alan J & Shaked, Israel, 1984. "The Valuation of FDIC Deposit Insurance Using Option-pricing Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 446-460, November.
    12. Episcopos, Athanasios, 2004. "The implied reserves of the Bank Insurance Fund," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1617-1635, July.
    13. Ronn, Ehud I & Verma, Avinash K, 1986. "Pricing Risk-Adjusted Deposit Insurance: An Option-Based Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 871-895, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brett Christophers, 2014. "Competition, Law, and the Power of (Imagined) Geography: Market Definition and the Emergence of Too-Big-to-Fail Banking in the United States," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 90(4), pages 429-450, October.
    2. VanHoose, David, 2011. "Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Bank Regulation: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 33, pages 45-60.
    3. Gómez, Fabiana, 2015. "Failed bank takeovers and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 45-58.
    4. Ho, Chia-Ling & Lai, Gene C. & Lee, Jin-Ping, 2014. "Financial reform and the adequacy of deposit insurance fund: Lessons from Taiwanese experience," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 57-77.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pennacchi, George G., 2005. "Risk-based capital standards, deposit insurance, and procyclicality," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 432-465, October.
    2. International Association of Deposit Insurers, 2020. "Evaluation of Differential Premium Systems for Deposit Insurance," IADI Research Papers 20-06, International Association of Deposit Insurers.
    3. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Advances in Econometrics, in: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications, pages 1-86, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Hangsuck Lee & Seongjoo Song & Gaeun Lee, 2023. "Insurance guaranty premiums and exchange options," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 17, number 3, October.
    5. Chung-Ming Kuan, 2013. "Markov switching model (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 11, pages 13-40, December.
    6. Sara Maccaferri & Jessica Cariboni & Wim Schoutens, 2013. "Levy Processes and the Financial Crisis: Can We Design a More Effective Deposit Protection?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
    7. Dmitry Kulikov, 2012. "Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles on the Estonian Stock Market," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    8. Masaru Chiba, 2023. "Robust and efficient specification tests in Markov-switching autoregressive models," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 99-137, April.
    9. Fernández-Aguado, Pilar Gómez & Martínez, Eduardo Trigo & Ruíz, Rafael Moreno & Ureña, Antonio Partal, 2022. "Evaluation of European Deposit Insurance Scheme funding based on risk analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 234-247.
    10. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    11. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in autoregressive models with Markov switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 369-386, June.
    12. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    13. Stefan Nagel & Amiyatosh Purnanandam & Itay Goldstein, 2020. "Banks’ Risk Dynamics and Distance to Default [Robust comparative statics in large dynamic economies]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2421-2467.
    14. Chiang, Shu Ling & Tsai, Ming Shann, 2020. "The valuation of deposit insurance allowing for the interest rate spread and early-bankruptcy risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 345-356.
    15. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2021. "OLS Estimation of Markov switching VAR models: asymptotics and application to energy use," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(3), pages 431-449, September.
    16. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.
    17. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Perspective from Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 245-257.
    18. Rossi, Alessandro & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006. "Volatility estimation via hidden Markov models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 203-230, March.
    19. Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Business Cycle in the Industrial Production of Brazilian States," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] e75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Hwang, Dar-Yeh & Shie, Fu-Shuen & Wang, Kehluh & Lin, Jung-Chu, 2009. "The pricing of deposit insurance considering bankruptcy costs and closure policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1909-1919, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:5:y:2009:i:1:p:57-88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.