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The effect of industry consolidation and deposit insurance reform on the resiliency of the U.S. bank insurance fund

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  • Jones, Kenneth D.
  • Oshinsky, Robert C.
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    Abstract

    We examine the effects of structural change in the U.S. banking industry, as well as key regulatory changes, including recently enacted deposit insurance reform legislation, on the resiliency of the FDIC-administered bank insurance fund (BIF) by estimating and comparing the probability of BIF insolvency over time. We do this using a Markov-switching model that relies on historical patterns of BIF disbursements to define the probability of switching among three "states" of the banking industry's financial health. Monte Carlo simulations are then performed to project the financial condition of the BIF over a 50-year period. Our results indicate that the insolvency risk to the bank insurance fund has increased significantly due to industry consolidation, and is mainly due to the concentration of deposits in the 10 largest U.S. banking companies. We also find that recent deposit insurance reforms will cause only a marginal reduction in the risk of BIF insolvency. The increased risk associated with a more concentrated industry structure simply dominates the reform effect.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 57-88

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:5:y:2009:i:1:p:57-88

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil

    Related research

    Keywords: Deposit insurance Bank insurance fund Markov-switching model Monte Carlo simulation;

    References

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    1. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    2. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
    3. Andrew Kuritzkes & Til Schuermann & Scott Weiner, 2005. "Deposit Insurance and Risk Management of the U.S. Banking System: What is the Loss Distribution Faced by the FDIC?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 217-242, September.
    4. Sherrill Shaffer, 1990. "Aggregate deposit insurance funding and taxpayer bailouts," Working Papers 90-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
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    7. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
    8. Cooperstein Richard L. & Pennacchi George G. & Redburn F. Stevens, 1995. "The Aggregate Cost of Deposit Insurance: A Multiperiod Analysis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 242-271, July.
    9. Darrell Duffie & Robert Jarrow & Amiyatosh Purnanandam & Wei Yang, 2003. "Market Pricing of Deposit Insurance," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 93-119, October.
    10. Episcopos, Athanasios, 2004. "The implied reserves of the Bank Insurance Fund," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1617-1635, July.
    11. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. David VanHoose, 2011. "Systemic Risks and Macroprudential Bank Regulation: A Critical Appraisal," NFI Policy Briefs 2011-PB-04, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    2. Ho, Chia-Ling & Lai, Gene C. & Lee, Jin-Ping, 2014. "Financial reform and the adequacy of deposit insurance fund: Lessons from Taiwanese experience," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 57-77.

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