Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

CHANGES IN THE INFLATION PROCESS IN CANADA: Evidence and Implications

Contents:

Author Info

  • Doug Hostland

Abstract

The Canadian economy is currently in transition from a period of disinflation to one with a very low and relatively stable inflation rate. Against this background, the author asks whether reduced-form parameters should be expected to be invariant to changes in the inflation process. This raises two empirical issues. The first relates to whether shifts in the Canadian inflation process can be identified over time. It appears so, since casual observation as well as various statistical procedures indicate that there was a unique period from the mid-1950s to the early 1970s when inflation was low and relatively stable. The second issue relates to whether there is evidence that parameter instability corresponds to shifts in the inflation regime. Statistical tests indicate that parameter instability is an important concern in reduced-form models of the inflation process, particularly for the early 1970s. The evidence for Canada suggests that inflation forecasts from reduced-form models may be unreliable in the presence of important changes in the inflation process. L'economie canadienne est en transition entre une phase de desinflation et une periode caracterisee par un taux d'inflation tres bas et relativement stable. Dans ce contexte, l'auteur se demande s'il faut s'attendre a ce que les parametres d'une equation de forme reduite soient insensibles aux changements qui s'operent dans le processus d'inflation. Deux questions empiriques se posent a cet egard. En premier lieu, il faut determiner si des modifications peuvent etre decelees au fil du temps dans le processus d'inflation au Canada. Il semble qu'il en soit ainsi, puisqu'une analyse des donnees, meme superficielle, de meme que diverses methodes statistiques revelent que le Canada a vecu une periode unique de taux d'inflation bas et relativement stables, soit du milieu des annees 50 au debut des annees 70. En deuxieme lieu, il faut etablir s'il y a des preuves que l'instabilite des parametres correspond a des changements du regime d'inflation. Les tests statistiques indiquent qu'il faut prendre en consideration l'instabilite des parametres dans les modeles de forme reduite relatifs au processus d'inflation, particulierement pour le debut des annees 70. Les resultats obtenus pour le Canada donnent a penser que les previsions d'inflation faites a l'aide de modeles de forme reduite peuvent ne pas etre fiables quand d'importants changements s'operent dans le processus d'inflation

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp95-5.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 95-5.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:95-5

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  2. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
  3. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:3:p:335-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  5. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  6. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  9. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-69, November.
  10. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  11. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  14. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  15. Schmidt, P., 1988. "Dickey-Fuller Tests With Drift," Papers 8717, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  16. Ploberger, Werner & Krämer;, Walter, 1990. "The Local Power of the CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 335-347, September.
  17. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
  18. Stephen Poloz & David Rose & Robert Tetlow, 1994. "The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1994(Autumn), pages 23-38.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Martha MisasA., 2005. "Analisis Delcomportamiento De La Inflacíon Trimestral En Colombia Bajo Cambios De Regimen: Una Evidencia A Traves Del Modelo," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001993, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2008. "Inflation regimes and inflation expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 229-243.
  3. Butler, L, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Porjection Model Part 4 : A Semi- Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output : Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter," Technical Reports 77, Bank of Canada.
  4. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas, . "Análisis del Comportamiento de la Inflación Trimestral en Colombia Bajo Cambios de Régimen: Una Evidencia a Través del Modelo: "Switching" de Hamilton," Borradores de Economia 086, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Canada," MPRA Paper 5015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Jean-François Fillion & André Léonard, 1997. "La courbe de Phillips au Canada : un examen de quelques hypothèses," Working Papers 97-3, Bank of Canada.
  7. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2002. "Alternative sources of the lag dynamics of inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 02-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  8. Guy Debelle, 1996. "The Ends of Three Small Inflations: Australia, New Zealand and Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 22(1), pages 56-78, March.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:95-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.