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Modeling international financial returns with a multivariate regime switching copula

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  • CHOLLETE, Loran

    (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH))

  • HEINEN, Andréas

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

  • VALDESOGO, Alfonso

    (Université catholique de Louvain (UCL). Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE))

Abstract

In order to capture observed asymmetric dependence in international financial returns, we construct a multivariate regime-switching model of copulas. We model dependence with one Gaussian and one canonical vine copula regime. Canonical vines are constructed from bivariate conditional copulas and provide a very flexible way of characterizing dependence in multivariate settings. We apply the model to returns from the G5 and Latin American regions, and document two main findings. First, we discover that models with canonical vines generally dominate alternative dependence structures. Second, the choice of copula is important for risk management, because it modifies the Value at Risk (VaR) of international portfolio returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2008013.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2008013

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Keywords: asymmetric dependence; canonical vine copula; international returns; regime-switching; risk management; Value-at-Risk.;

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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Cited by:
  1. Cathy Q. Ning & Loran Chollete, 2009. "The Dependence Structure of Macroeconomic Variables in the US," Working Papers 005, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
  2. David E Allen & Mohammad.A. Ashraf & Michael McAleer & Robert J Powell & Abhay K Singh, 2013. "Financial Dependence Analysis: Applications of Vine Copulae," KIER Working Papers 843, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Chollete, Loran & Pena, Victor de la & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: A Copula Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/27, University of Stavanger.
  4. Chollete, Loran & de la Pena , Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: An Extreme Value Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/26, University of Stavanger.
  5. Donatien Hainaut & Renaud MacGilchrist, 2012. "Strategic asset allocation with switching dependence," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 75-96, February.
  6. Peter Christoffersen & Hugues Langlois, 2011. "The Joint Dynamics of Equity Market Factors," CREATES Research Papers 2011-45, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  7. Chollete, Loran & Ning, Cathy, 2012. "Asymmetric Dependence in the US Economy: Application to Money and the Phillips Curve," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/1, University of Stavanger.
  8. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
  9. Chollete, Loran, 2011. "A Model of Endogenous Extreme Events," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/2, University of Stavanger.
  10. Garcia, René & Tsafack, Georges, 2011. "Dependence structure and extreme comovements in international equity and bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1954-1970, August.
  11. Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2011. "Are Copula-GoF-tests of any practical use? Empirical evidence for stocks, commodities and FX futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 173-188, May.
  12. Oleg Sokolinskiy & Dick van Dijk, 2011. "Forecasting Volatility with Copula-Based Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-125/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  13. David.E. Allen & Mohammad.A. Ashraf & Michael. McAleer & Robert.J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2013. "Financial Dependence Analysis: Applications of Vine Copulae," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-022/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  14. Dominique Guegan & Pierre-André Maugis, 2011. "An econometric Study for Vine Copulas," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00645799, HAL.

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