Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects

Contents:

Author Info

  • Christopher Carroll
  • Jiri Slacalek
  • Martin Sommer

Abstract

We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (1960s–1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s–2007), and recent substantial rise (2008–2011) can be interpreted using a parsimonious 'buffer stock' model of consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between 'target' and actual wealth, with the target determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the long-term saving decline, while fluctuations in wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://econ.jhu.edu/wp-content/uploads/pdf/papers/wp602_carroll.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 602.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:602

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 3400 North Charles Street Baltimore, MD 21218
Phone: 410-516-7601
Fax: 410-516-7600
Web page: http://www.econ.jhu.edu
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt28d3s92s, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  2. Deaton, A., 1989. "Saving And Liquidity Constraints," Papers 153, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  3. Guido Lorenzoni & Veronica Guerrieri, 2011. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings and the Liquidity Trap," 2011 Meeting Papers 1414, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
  5. Christopher D. Carroll & Patrick Toche, 2009. "A Tractable Model of Buffer Stock Saving," NBER Working Papers 15265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, May.
  7. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. John Y. Campbell, 1988. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Alan, S. & Crossley, T. & Low, H., 2012. "Saving on a Rainy Day, Borrowing for a Rainy Day," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1222, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Ostergaard, Charlotte & Sorensen, Bent E, 2006. "US Banking Deregulation, Small Businesses and Interstate Insurance of Personal Income," CEPR Discussion Papers 5863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1998. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Research Paper 9821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Sabelhaus, John & Song, Jae, 2010. "The great moderation in micro labor earnings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 391-403, May.
  13. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
  14. Skinner, Jonathan, 1988. "Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 237-255, September.
  15. Ashoka Mody & Damiano Sandri & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2012. "Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession," IMF Working Papers 12/42, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Xavier Ragot & Edouard Challe, 2011. "Precautionary Saving over the Business Cycle," 2011 Meeting Papers 517, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  17. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 2009. "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-16, January.
  18. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-98, May.
  19. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158.
  20. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
  21. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Bewley, Truman, 1977. "The permanent income hypothesis: A theoretical formulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 252-292, December.
  23. Jesse Bricker & Brian Bucks & Arthur Kennickell & Traci Mach & Kevin Moore, 2011. "Surveying the aftermath of the storm: changes in family finances from 2007 to 2009," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Janine Aron & John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Keiko Murata & Anthony Murphy, 2012. "Credit, Housing Collateral, And Consumption: Evidence From Japan, The U.K., And The U.S," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(3), pages 397-423, 09.
  25. Karen Dynan, 2012. "Is a Household Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 299-362.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Daniel Garrote & Jimena Llopis & Javier Vallés, 2013. "Los canales del desapalancamiento del sector privado: una comparación internacional," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 1302, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Sule Alan & Thomas Crossley & Hamish Low, 2012. "Saving on a rainy day, borrowing for a rainy day," IFS Working Papers W12/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  3. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
  4. Daniel Cooper & Karen Dynan, 2013. "Wealth shocks and macroeconomic dynamics," Public Policy Discussion Paper 13-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  5. Christopher D. Carroll, 2012. "Representing Consumption and Saving Without A Representative Consumer," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Economic Sustainability and Progress National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (None) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask None to update the entry or send us the correct address.

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.