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A Tractable Model of Precautionary Reserves, Net Foreign Assets, or Sovereign Wealth Funds

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  • Carroll, Christopher D
  • Jeanne, Olivier

Abstract

We model the motives for residents of a country to hold foreign assets, including the precautionary motive that has been omitted from much previous literature as intractable. Our model captures many of the principal insights from the existing specialized literature on the precautionary motive, deriving a convenient formula for the economy's target value of assets. The target is the level of assets that balances impatience, prudence, risk, intertemporal substitution, and the rate of return. We use the model to shed light on two topical questions: The 'upstream' flows of capital from developing countries to advanced countries, and the long-run impact of resorbing global financial imbalances.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7449.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7449

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Keywords: Buffer Stock Saving; Capital Flows; Foreign Exchange Reserves; Net Foreign Assets; Small Open Economy; Sovereign Wealth Funds;

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References

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  1. Carroll, Christopher D., 2011. "Theoretical foundations of buffer stock saving," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970–2004," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp126, IIIS.
  3. Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 1993. "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 140, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Marco E. Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Mercantilism," 2008 Meeting Papers 56, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, 09.
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "The Growth of Nations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1732, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
  8. Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri, 2006. "The Great Moderation and the U.S. External Imbalance," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 209-225, December.
  9. Marcos Chamon & Eswar Prasad, 2008. "Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," NBER Working Papers 14546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An equilibrum model of "global imbalances" and low interest rates," BIS Working Papers 222, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Damiano Sandri, 2014. "Growth and Capital Flows with Risky Entrepreneurship," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 102-23, July.
  12. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  13. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley C94-044, University of California at Berkeley.
  14. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
  15. Christopher D. Carroll & Patrick Toche, 2009. "A Tractable Model of Buffer Stock Saving," NBER Working Papers 15265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Hausmann, Ricardo & Pritchett, Lant & Rodrik, Dani, 2004. "Growth Accelerations," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh, 1992. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 92/72, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
  20. Christopher Carroll, 2002. "'Risky Habits' and the Marginal Propensity to Consume Out Of Permanent Income," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics 42, Society for Computational Economics.
  21. Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 3186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  22. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
  23. Toche, Patrick, 2005. "A tractable model of precautionary saving in continuous time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 267-272, May.
  24. Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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