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A Tractable Model of Precautionary Reserves, Net Foreign Assets, or Sovereign Wealth Funds

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Christopher D. Carroll
Olivier Jeanne

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Abstract

We model the motives for residents of a country to hold foreign assets, including the precautionary motive that has been omitted from much previous literature as intractable. Our model captures many of the principal insights from the existing specialized literature on the precautionary motive, deriving a convenient formula for the economy's target value of assets. The target is the level of assets that balances impatience, prudence, risk, intertemporal substitution, and the rate of return. We use the model to shed light on two topical questions: The "upstream'' flows of capital from developing countries to advanced countries, and the long-run impact of resorbing global financial imbalances.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15228.

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Date of creation: Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15228

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C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "The Growth of Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 275-326. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Carroll, Christopher D. & Weil, David N., 1994. "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 133-192, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2007. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in sudden stop economies: an assessment of the new mercantilism," International Finance Discussion Papers 911, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Christopher D. Carroll & Jody Overland & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2007-1), pages 153-230. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Jeanne, Olivier, 2007. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Christopher D. Carroll & Patrick Toche, 2009. "A Tractable Model of Buffer Stock Saving," NBER Working Papers 15265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D., 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, precautionary saving, and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 121-139, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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