The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics
AbstractThis study explores the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on Turkey's economy. The data used in this study covers the years from 1991 to 2008. Macro-economic variables used in this study are GNP, inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports. VAR model is used in estimating the macro-economic impact of oil prices. Based on the results of the analysis conducted, a meaningful relationship of oil prices with inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports is estimated. However, it is observed that a rise in oil prices do not have any substantial impact on macro-economic variables. While an inverse relationship of oil prices with the ratio of exports to imports and unemployment is estimated, a direct relationship between oil prices and inflation emerged. The results of impulse-response analysis shows that the responses of macro-economic variables to oil price shocks become stable only after one year.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8658.
Date of creation: 18 Feb 2010
Date of revision: 15 Jun 2010
Oil prices; VAR; Macroeconomics; Turkey;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2011-02-26 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-CWA-2011-02-26 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-ENE-2011-02-26 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-02-26 (Macroeconomics)
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