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Fed Policy Expectations and Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets

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  • Koepke, Robin

Abstract

The empirical literature has long established that U.S. interest rates are an important driver of international portfolio flows, with lower rates “pushing” capital to emerging markets. On the basis of this literature, it is often argued that the Federal Reserve’s imminent policy tightening cycle is likely to weigh on portfolio flows to emerging markets in coming years. The analysis presented in this paper offers a different interpretation of the literature, suggesting that it is the surprise element of monetary policy that affects EM portfolio inflows. A shift in market expectations towards easier future U.S. monetary policy leads to greater foreign portfolio inflows and vice versa. Given current market expectations of sustained increases in the federal funds rate in coming years, EM portfolio flows could be boosted by a slower pace of Fed tightening than currently expected or could be reduced by a faster pace of Fed tightening.

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  • Koepke, Robin, 2014. "Fed Policy Expectations and Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 63519, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Apr 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63519
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    Cited by:

    1. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    2. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    3. Forbes, Kristin & Reinhardt, Dennis & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2017. "The spillovers, interactions, and (un)intended consequences of monetary and regulatory policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-22.
    4. Beniak, Patrycja, 2019. "The emerging market reaction to Fed tightening," MPRA Paper 96545, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Oct 2019.
    5. OGAWA, Eiji & SHIMIZU, Junko & LUO, Pengfei, 2023. "Effects of Us Interest Rate Hike and Global Risk on Daily Capital Flows in Emerging Market Countries," Hitotsubashi Journal of commerce and management, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 57(1), pages 1-31, October.
    6. Nicolás Álvarez H. & Antonio Fernandois S. & Carlos Saavedra H., 2019. "Sensibilidad de flujos financieros a Chile durante eventos de estrés financiero global," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(2), pages 118-126, August.
    7. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Feyen,Erik H.B. & Ghosh,Swati R. & Kibuuka,Katie & Farazi,Subika, 2015. "Global liquidity and external bond issuance in emerging markets and developing economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7363, The World Bank.
    9. Olivier Blanchard, 2021. "Currency Wars, Coordination, and Capital Controls," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 4, pages 134-157, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Jieun Lee & Jung-Min Kim & Jong Kook Shin, 2016. "US Interest Rate Policy Spillover and International Capital Flow: Evidence from Korea," Working Papers 2016-21, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    12. Andreas Hoffmann & Björn Urbansky, 2015. "Policy Shifts and Financial Instability in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 455-469, August.
    13. Teik-Khim Ooi & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2021. "Impact of Market Expectations on the U.S. Interest Rate Lift-Off in ASEAN-5 Financial System," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(2), pages 243-271, June.
    14. Masahiro Enya & Akira Kohsaka & Kimiko Sugimoto, 2019. "Capital Flow Dynamics in Emerging Market Economies," OSIPP Discussion Paper 19E011, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    15. Choy, Marylin & Cerna, Jorge, 2014. "Comportamiento de los mercados financieros peruanos ante el anuncio del tapering," Working Papers 2014-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Flows; Portfolio Flows; Emerging Markets; Monetary Policy; Market Expectations; Fed Funds Futures; Push and Pull;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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