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Resource discoveries, learning, and national income accounting

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  • Hamilton, Kirk
  • Atkinson, Giles

Abstract

Questions about the ultimate size of mineral and energy resource endowments and the degree of fiscal prudence which should be exercised by countries engaged in resource extraction have become central for many developing countries during the recent resource boom. To explore these questions, this paper develops a model of optimal resource extraction and discovery that combines two polar assumptions: (i) that discovering a resource today drives up the cost of future resource discoveries, and (ii) that extracting resources yields knowledge that reduces the cost of discovery. Although the model shows that resource discoveries should be valued at marginal discovery cost in measures of national saving and income, the ultimate size of the resource that can be exploited is the result of the interplay between rising discovery costs and accumulating knowledge. Empirical tests of the model show that the resulting income estimates would be extremely volatile for many extractive economies, owing to the lumpiness of resource discoveries. Two alternative accounting approaches, based on Hicksian concepts, yield more intuitive and less volatile income estimates. The question of fiscal prudence for extractive economies hinges on how optimistic countries are about the risks in future mineral and energy markets, and how far into the future these countries are willing to project optimistic trends when making decisions about how much to consume and how much to save of current resource revenues.

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  • Hamilton, Kirk & Atkinson, Giles, 2013. "Resource discoveries, learning, and national income accounting," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6505, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6505
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Toscani, Frederik, 2019. "The shifting natural wealth of nations: The role of market orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 228-245.
    2. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    3. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Arezki, Rabah & Toscani, Frederik, 2016. "Shifting Frontiers in Global Resource Wealth: The Role of Policies and Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 11553, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Dobronogov, Anton & Gelb, Alan & Saldanha, Fernando Brant, 2014. "How should donors respond to resource windfalls in poor countries ? from aid to insurance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6952, The World Bank.
    5. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2019. "How do oil producers respond to giant oil field discoveries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
    6. Atkinson, Giles & Hamilton, Kirk, 2020. "Sustaining wealth: Simulating a sovereign wealth fund for the UK's oil and gas resources, past and future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Taoyuan Wei, 2015. "Accounting Price of an Exhaustible Resource: A Comment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 60(4), pages 579-581, April.
    8. Atkinson, Giles & Hamilton, Kirk, 2020. "Sustaining wealth: simulating a sovereign wealth fund for the UK’s oil and gas resources, past and future," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103564, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Vats, Nishant & Kundu, Shohini, 2021. "Banking networks and economic growth: from idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations," ESRB Working Paper Series 128, European Systemic Risk Board.

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    Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Debt Markets; Climate Change Economics; Banks&Banking Reform;
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