A Stochastic Simulation Framework for the Government of Canada's Debt Strategy
AbstractDebt strategy is defined as the manner in which a government finances an excess of government expenditures over revenues and any maturing debt issued in previous periods. The author gives a thorough qualitative description of the complexities of debt strategy analysis and then demonstrates that it is, in fact, a problem in stochastic optimal control. Although this formal definition is conceptually useful, the author recommends the use of simulation to help characterize the set of strategies that a government can use to fund its borrowing requirements. He then describes in detail a stochastic simulation framework, building from previous work in Bolder (2001, 2002); this framework forms one important element in the debt strategy decision-making process employed by the Government of Canada. The primary objective in constructing this stochastic simulation framework is to learn about the nature of the risk and cost trade-offs associated with different financing strategies. To this end, the paper includes a detailed description of the model; a set of possible debt cost and risk measures, including one potentially useful conditional risk measure; illustrative results under normal stochastic conditions; an analysis of the sensitivity of the results to various key model parameters; a novel approach to stress testing; and a possible framework for selecting a financing strategy, given assumptions about government risk preferences.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 03-10.
Length: 109 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
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Debt management; Econometric and statistical methods; Economic models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
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