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Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management: Issues and Approaches for Public Debt Managers

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  • Michael G. Papaioannou

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper presents conventional and alternative exchange-rate risk measures for government bonds, and outlines liability management operations for dealing with currency exposure. These risk measures and liability management operations are analyzed from the perspective of a sovereign debt manager. In particular, we examine the VaR statistic as a prominent measure of exchange rate risk exposure, along with an integrated VaR approach for the simultaneous estimation of a bonded portfolio’s interest rate and exchange rate risk; the expected shortfall measure of exchange rate risk; and the spectral risk measure. The liability management operations outlined are debt buybacks, debt swaps and currency derivatives. These operations are extensively used by public debt managers of both developed and emerging market countries to mitigate or eliminate exchange rate risk of public debt portfolios and to reduce external debt servicing costs. Also, the cost at Risk is introduced as an approach to assess debt strategies, and best practices in managing the exchange rate risk exposure of public debt are provided. Further, experiences of external public debt management from selected south-east European countries are offered to illustrate the application of sovereign liability management operations in this region.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael G. Papaioannou, 2009. "Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management: Issues and Approaches for Public Debt Managers," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 7(1), pages 7-34.
  • Handle: RePEc:seb:journl:v:7:y:2009:i:1:p:7-34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Cangoz,Mehmet Coskun & Sulla,Olga & Wang,ChunLan & Dychala,Christopher Benjamin, 2019. "A Joint Foreign Currency Risk Management Approach for Sovereign Assets and Liabilities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8728, The World Bank.
    3. Thordur Jonasson & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2018. "A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks," IMF Working Papers 2018/074, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Udaibir S Das & Miss Yinqiu Lu & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Iva Petrova, 2012. "Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management: Conceptual Issues," IMF Working Papers 2012/241, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Samia Omrane, 2012. "An Analysis of Exchange Rate Risk Exposure Related to the Public Debt Portfolio of Tunisia: Beyond VaR Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 59-87, March.
    6. André Amante & Phillip Anderson & Thordur Jonasson & Herman Kamil & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2019. "Sovereign Asset and Liability Management in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Uruguay," IMF Working Papers 2019/290, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Udaibir S Das & Jay Surti & Mr. Faisal Ahmed & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Guilherme Pedras, 2010. "Managing Public Debt and Its Financial Stability Implications," IMF Working Papers 2010/280, International Monetary Fund.

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