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Analysis of the Iran Oil Embargo

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Abstract

This report analyses the macro-economic, sectoral, and energy effects of an Iranian oil embargo. Five scenarios are analysed reflecting various degrees of oil scarcity on the global market and different sizes of embargo coalitions. The report estimates the macro-economic impacts using the global general equilibrium model GEM-E3. The international oil and energy markets are assessed with the POLES model. This provides the impacts in prices and quantities in the international energy (oil) market. Impacts on trade flows regarding refined oil products are estimated with the OURSE model.

Suggested Citation

  • Alban Kitous & Bert Saveyn & Steve Gervais & Tobias Wiesenthal & Antonio Soria, 2013. "Analysis of the Iran Oil Embargo," JRC Research Reports JRC77983, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc77983
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC77983
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    1. Maisonnave, Hélène & Pycroft, Jonathan & Saveyn, Bert & Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, 2012. "Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 172-179.
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Philip K. Verleger, 2012. "Using US Strategic Reserves to Moderate Potential Oil Price Increases from Sanctions on Iran," Policy Briefs PB12-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Frédéric Lantz & Valérie Saint-Antonin & Jean-François Gruson & Wojciech Suwala, 2012. "The OURSE model: Simulating the World Refining Sector to 2030," JRC Research Reports JRC68853, Joint Research Centre.
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    1. Toon Vandyck & Alban Kitous & Bert Saveyn & Kimon Keramidas & Luis Rey Los Santos & Krzysztof Wojtowicz, 2018. "Economic Exposure to Oil Price Shocks and the Fragility of Oil-Exporting Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova, 2017. "The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 537-552, October.
    3. M. Reza Gharibnavaz & Robert Waschik, 2015. "A Computable General Equilibrium Model of International Sanctions," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-255, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

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    Keywords

    oil embargo; Iran; modelling; oil market; macro-economic impact;
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