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The Clinton era and the U.S. business cycle : what did change?

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  • Heilemann, Ullrich
  • Münch, Heinz Josef
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    Abstract

    The 1990s were the most prosperous decade in U.S. economic history. The paper analyses to which extent this period fits into preceding cyclical experience. This is done by classifying the period 1991-12 to 2000-12 with the help of a 4-phase classification scheme based on multivariate discriminance analysis. It is shown that in relation to the post 1970 experience, the ?fabulous decade? saw considerable shifts of influence between the 19 classifying variables. Most noteworthy are the much reduced influence of M2, Net Exports, and Unemployment on the one side and the increase of Real GNP, inflation, Government Expenditure and of Unit Labor Cost on the other side. This confirms interpretations of the fabulous decade as the result of a forbearing monetary policy made possible by a deficit targeting fiscal policy, low inflation and a productivity jump. However, the era looses some of its uniqueness when it is seen in the entire post WW II cycle history. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen in its series Technical Reports with number 2005,12.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:200512

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    Keywords: U.S. business cycle; 4-phase scheme; discriminance analysis; Clinton era;

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    1. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Front matter, The American Business Cycle. Continuity and Change," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages -15 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John R. Meyer & Daniel H. Weinberg, 1975. "On the Classification of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 2, number 2, pages 43-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Weihs, Claus & Sondhauss, Ursula, 2000. "Business phase classification and prediction: how to compare interpretability of classification methods?," Technical Reports 2000,24, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    6. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, January.
    7. John R. Meyer & Daniel H. Weinberg, 1976. "On the Classification of Economic Fluctuations: An Update," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 3, number 4, pages 140-141 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1951. "What Happens During Business Cycles: A Progress Report," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc51-1, July.
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