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On the international spillovers of US quantitative easing

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  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Lo Duca, Marco
  • Straub, Roland

Abstract

The paper analyses the global spillovers of the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policy measures. First, we find that Fed measures in the early phase of the crisis (QE1) were highly effective in lowering sovereign yields and raising equity markets, especially in the US relative to other countries. Fed measures since 2010 (QE2) boosted equities worldwide, while they had muted impact on yields across countries. Yet Fed policies functioned in a procyclical manner for capital flows to emerging markets (EMEs) and a counter-cyclical way for the US, triggering a portfolio rebalancing across countries out of EMEs into US equity and bond funds under QE1, and in the opposite direction under QE2. Second, the impact of Fed operations, such as Treasury and MBS purchases, on portfolio allocations and asset prices dwarfed those of Fed announcements, underlining the importance of the market repair and liquidity functions of Fed policies. Third, we find no evidence that FX or capital account policies helped countries shield themselves from these US policy spillovers, but rather that responses to Fed policies are related to country risk. The results thus illustrate how US unconventional measures have contributed to portfolio reallocation as well as a re-pricing of risk in global financial markets. JEL Classification: E52, E58, F32, F34, G11

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1557.

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Date of creation: Jun 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131557

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Keywords: Capital flows; emerging markets; Federal Reserve; monetary policy; panel data; policy responses; Portfolio Choice; quantitative easing; United States;

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References

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  1. Straub, Roland & Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas, 2013. "Bubble Thy Neighbor: Portfolio Effects and Externalities from Capital Controls," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79785, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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  6. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1364, European Central Bank.
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  17. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," NBER Working Papers 17555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2011. "Did the Federal Reserve's MBS purchase program lower mortgage rates?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 498-514.
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  21. Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Liquidity risk, credit risk, and the federal reserve’s responses to the crisis," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 335-348, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Lo Duca, Marco & Nicoletti, Giulio & Vidal Martinez, Ariadna, 2014. "Global corporate bond issuance: what role for US quantitative easing?," Working Paper Series 1649, European Central Bank.
  2. Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Developed markets’ business cycle dynamics and time-variation in emerging markets’ asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 76-82.
  3. Richhild Moessner, 2014. "International spillovers from US forward guidance to equity markets," DNB Working Papers 427, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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