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Bubble Thy Neighbor: Portfolio Effects and Externalities from Capital Controls

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  • Forbes, Kristin
  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Straub, Roland

Abstract

We use changes in Brazil’s tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2011 to test for direct portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls on investor portfolios. The analysis is structured based on information from investor interviews. We find that an increase in Brazil’s tax on foreign investment in bonds causes investors to significantly decrease their portfolio allocations to Brazil in both bonds and equities. Investors simultaneously increase allocations to other countries that have substantial exposure to China and decrease allocations to countries viewed as more likely to use capital controls. Much of the effect of capital controls on portfolio flows appears to occur through signalling (i.e. changes in investor expectations about future policies) rather than the direct cost of the controls. This evidence of significant externalities from capital controls suggests that any assessment of controls should consider their effects on portfolio flows to other countries.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8979.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8979

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Keywords: Brazil; capital controls; emerging markets; externalities; mutual funds; portfolio effects; signalling; spillovers;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:iis:dispap:iiisdp438 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Kristin Forbes & Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2013. "Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1343, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Jinjarak, Yothin & Noy, Ilan & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2013. "What Lessons Can Asia Draw from Capital Controls in Brazil during 2008–2012?," ADBI Working Papers 423, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  4. Ramos-Tallada, J., 2013. "Le FMI et la gestion des flux de capitaux : la longue route vers une approche pragmatique," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 192, pages 95-110.
  5. Jinjarak, Y & Noy, I & Zheng, H, 2012. "Capital Controls in Brazil: Stemming a Tide with a Signal?," Working Paper Series 2391, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  6. Vivek Arora & Karl Habermeier & Jonathan D. Ostry & Rhoda Weeks-Brown, 2013. "La liberalización y el manejo de los flujos de capital: una visión institucional," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 15(28), pages 205-255, January-J.
  7. Marcos Chamon & Marcio Garcia, 2013. "Capital controls in Brazil: effective?," Textos para discussão 606, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).

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