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The links between gold, oil prices and Islamic stock markets in a regime switching environment

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  • Walid Chkili

    (University of Carthage
    University of Tunis El Manar)

Abstract

This paper investigates the linkages between gold, oil prices and Islamic stock market for the turbulent period 1996–2020 which covers the recent COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The paper applies standard VAR and Markov switching VAR models. Empirical results can be summarized as follows: (i) There are some significant relationships between the considered markets. (ii) The sign of the links varies significantly according to markets and regimes. (iii) There is a significant and positive link between oil and Islamic stock markets namely during turbulent periods suggesting the financialization of the crude oil market. (iv) The negative or the absence of relationships between gold market and both oil and Islamic stock markets indicate that gold can act as a hedge and safe haven during extreme market conditions. These findings have several practical implications for risk-management and portfolio diversification strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Walid Chkili, 2022. "The links between gold, oil prices and Islamic stock markets in a regime switching environment," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(1), pages 169-186, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:12:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s40822-022-00202-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s40822-022-00202-y
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    Cited by:

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    2. Shafa Guliyeva, 2023. "Analysis of the effect of Energy Prices on Stock Indexes During the Epidemic Crisis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 526-536, March.
    3. Wongtawan Uthumrat, 2022. "Dynamic Relationship between the Return of Gold, Crude Oil, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand Based on a Vector Autoregressive Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 350-356, July.
    4. Abderrazek Ben Hamouda, 2023. "Revisiting the Causality between Oil Prices and Stock Markets in Selected MENA Countries: A Bootstrap Rolling-window Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 109-118, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Gold; Islamic stock market; Markov switching; Financialization; Safe haven; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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