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Is gold a safe haven? International evidence

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  • Dirk G. Baur

    ()
    (University of Technology, Sydney - School of Finance and Economics)

  • Thomas K. McDermott

    ()
    (Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the role of gold in the global financial system. We test the hypothesis that gold represents a safe haven against stocks of major emerging and developing countries. A descriptive and econometric analysis for a sample spanning a 30 year period from 1979-2009 shows that gold is both a hedge and a safe haven for major European stock markets and the US but not for Australia, Canada, Japan and large emerging markets such as the BRIC countries. We also distinguish between a weak and strong form of the safe haven and argue that gold may act as a stabilizing force for the financial system by reducing losses in the face of extreme negative market shocks. Looking at specific crisis periods, we find that gold was a strong safe haven for most developed markets during the peak of the recent financial crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp310.

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Length: 35 pages
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp310

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Keywords: gold; safe haven; financial markets; uncertainty;

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References

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  1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2007. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp198, IIIS.
  2. Rustam Ibragimov & Johan Walden, 2006. "The Limits of Diversification When Losses May Be Large," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2104, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "Safe Haven Currencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 7249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Markwat, Thijs & Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Contagion as a domino effect in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1996-2012, November.
  6. Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Working Paper Series 0071, European Central Bank.
  7. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  8. Upper, Christian, 2000. "How safe was the "safe haven"? Financial market liquidity during the 1998 turbulences," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Hasman, Augusto & Samartín, Margarita, 2008. "Information acquisition and financial contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2136-2147, October.
  10. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2551-2569, August.
  11. Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
  12. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Scholarly Articles 2624460, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Brian M Lucey & Edel Tully & Valerio Poti, 2005. "International Portfolio Formation, Skewness & the Role of Gold," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp030, IIIS.
  14. Bai, Ye & Green, Christopher J., 2010. "International diversification strategies: Revisited from the risk perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 236-245, January.
  15. Chandar, Nandini & Patro, Dilip K. & Yezegel, Ari, 2009. "Crises, contagion and cross-listings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1709-1729, September.
  16. Francis , Bill B & Hasan , Iftekhar & Sun , Xian, 2006. "Financial market integration and the value of global diversification: evidence from US acquirers in cross-border mergers and acquisitions," Research Discussion Papers 24/2006, Bank of Finland.
  17. Kaul, Aditya & Sapp, Stephen, 2006. "Y2K fears and safe haven trading of the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 760-779, August.
  18. Brian H. Boyer & Tomomi Kumagai & Kathy Yuan, 2006. "How Do Crises Spread? Evidence from Accessible and Inaccessible Stock Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 957-1003, 04.
  19. Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2004. "The Price of Gold: A Global Required Yield Theory," Finance 0403003, EconWPA.
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