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Bayes model averaging of cyclical decompositions in economic time series

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  • Richard Kleijn

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Herman K. van Dijk

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

A flexible decomposition of a time series into stochastic cycles under possible non-stationarity is specified, providing both a useful data analysis tool and a very wide model class. A Bayes procedure using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is introduced with a model averaging approach which explicitly deals with the uncertainty on the appropriate number of cycles. The convergence of the MCMC method is substantially accelerated through a convenient reparametrization based on a hierarchical structure of variances in a state space model. The model and corresponding inferential procedure are applied to simulated data and to cyclical economic time series like US industrial production and unemployment. We derive the implied posterior distributions of model parameters and some relevant functions thereof, shedding light on several key features of economic time series. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 191-212

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:21:y:2006:i:2:p:191-212

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  1. James C. Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?," Working Papers 0013, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  2. Richard Paap & Herman K. van Dijk, 1999. "Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to US Consumption and Income," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-024/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Zivot, E., 1993. "A Bayesian Analysis of the Unit Root Hypothesis Within an Unobserved Components Model," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 93-15, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  4. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
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  6. Engel, C., 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-05, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  7. Harvey, A. & TTrimbur, T. & van Dijk, H., 2003. "Cyclical Components in Economic Time Series: a Bayesian Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0302, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Philip Hans Franses & Yoshinori Kawasaki, 2004. "Do seasonal unit roots matter for forecasting monthly industrial production?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 77-88.
  9. Gary Koop & Herman K. van Dijk & Henk Hoek, 1997. "Testing for Integration using Evolving Trend and Seasonals Models: A Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-078/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. Fruhwirth-Schnatter S., 2001. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of Classical and Dynamic Switching and Mixture Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 194-209, March.
  11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  12. Harvey, A.C. & Trimbur, T.M. & van Dijk, H.K., 2002. "Cyclical components in economic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-20, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  13. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  14. Zivot, Eric, 1994. "A Bayesian Analysis Of The Unit Root Hypothesis Within An Unobserved Components Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 552-578, August.
  15. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
  16. G. Huerta & M. West, 1999. "Priors and component structures in autoregressive time series models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(4), pages 881-899.
  17. Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238.
  18. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:552-78 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Harvey, Andrew C. & Trimbur, Thomas M. & Van Dijk, Herman K., 2007. "Trends and cycles in economic time series: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 618-649, October.
  2. Macaro, Christian, 2010. "Bayesian non-parametric signal extraction for Gaussian time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 381-395, August.

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