Cyclical Components in Economic Time Series: a Bayesian Approach

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Cyclical Components in Economic Time Series: a Bayesian Approach

Author Info

Harvey, A.
TTrimbur, T.
van Dijk, H.

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Abstract

Cyclical components in economic time series are analysed in a Bayesian framework, thereby allowing prior notions about periodicity to be used. The method is based on a general class of unobserved component models that allow relatively smooth cycles to be extracted. Posterior densities of parameters and smoothed cycles are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. An application to estimating business cycles in macroeconomic series illustrates the viability of the procedure for both univariate and bivariate models.

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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0302.

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Length: 48
Date of creation: Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0302

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Paper
- Herman K. van Dijk & Andrew Harvey & Thomas Trimbur, 2004. "Cyclical components in economic time series: A Bayesian approach," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 105, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2003-01-12 (All new papers)
NEP-ETS-2003-01-12 (Econometric Time Series)

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2005. "Using additional information in estimating the output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Working Papers 2005-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
Gonzalo Llosa/Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using additional information in estimating output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 243, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
Richard Kleijn & Herman K. van Dijk, 2006. "Bayes model averaging of cyclical decompositions in economic time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 191-212. [Downloadable!]

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-13.

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