Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Estimating Taylor Rules for Switzerland: Evidence from 2000 to 2012

Contents:

Author Info

  • Nikolay Markov
  • Thomas Nitschka

Abstract

This paper estimates Taylor rules using real-time inflation forecasts of the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) ARIMA model and real-time model-based internal estimates of the output gap since the onset of the monetary policy concept adopted in 2000. To study how market participants understand the SNB's behavior, we compare these Taylor rules to marketexpected rules using Consensus Economics survey-based measures of expectations. In light of the recent financial crisis, the zero-lower bound period and the subsequent massive Swiss franc appreciation, we analyze potential nonlinearity of the rules using a novel semi-parametric approach. First, the results show that the SNB reacts more strongly to its ARIMA inflation forecasts three and four quarters ahead than to forecasts at shorter horizons. Second, market participants have expected a higher inflation responsiveness of the SNB than found with the central bank's data. Third, the best fitting specification includes a reaction to the nominal effective Swiss franc appreciation. Finally, the semiparametric regressions suggest that the central bank reacts to movements in the output gap and the exchange rate to the extent that they become a concern for price stability and economic activity.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.snb.ch/n/mmr/reference/working_paper_2013_08/source/working_paper_2013_08.n.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss National Bank in its series Working Papers with number 2013-08.

as in new window
Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2013-08

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Börsenstrasse 15, P. O. Box, CH - 8022 Zürich
Phone: +41 44 631 31 11
Fax: +41 44 631 39 11
Email:
Web page: http://www.snb.ch/en/ifor/research/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Taylor rules; real-time data; nonlinearity; semi-parametric-modeling;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Owyang, Michael T. & Ramey, Garey, 2001. "Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt24q32688, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  2. Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "Surprising comparative properties of monetary models: Results from a new data base," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/21, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Young-Ju Kim & Chong Gu, 2004. "Smoothing spline Gaussian regression: more scalable computation via efficient approximation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(2), pages 337-356.
  4. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. George A. Kahn, 2012. "Estimated rules for monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV.
  7. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  8. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  9. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott C. Borger, 2009. "The market-perceived monetary policy rule," International Finance Discussion Papers 982, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  12. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
  14. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
  15. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2008. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Expectations Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(3), pages 473-488, 09.
  16. Nicolas Cuche-Curti & Pamela Hall & Attilio Zanetti, 2008. "Swiss GDP revisions: A monetary policy perspective," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2008(2), pages 183-213.
  17. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Why are target interest rate changes so persistent?," Working Papers 106, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  18. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  19. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
  20. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
  21. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
  22. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2004. "Taylor rules for the euro area: the issue of real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  23. Amund Holmsen & Jan F. Qvigstad & Øistein Røisland & Kristin Solberg-Johansen, 2008. "Communicating monetary policy intentions: The case of Norges Bank," Working Paper 2008/20, Norges Bank.
  24. Gerlach, Stefan & Lewis, John, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound, ECB Interest Rate Policy and the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  26. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
  27. Carl Walsh, 2001. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 609, CESifo Group Munich.
  28. Hans Genberg & Stefan Gerlach, 2010. "Swiss Monetary Policy 2000-2009," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 131-165, March.
  29. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Hayat, Aziz & Mishra, Sagarika, 2010. "Federal reserve monetary policy and the non-linearity of the Taylor rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1292-1301, September.
  31. Marco Huwiler & Daniel Kaufmann, 2013. "Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model," Economic Studies 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
  32. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  33. Thomas J. Jordan & Michel Peytrignet & Enzo Rossi, 2010. "Ten Years' Experience with the Swiss National Bank's Monetary Policy Strategy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 9-90, March.
  34. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo Group Munich.
  35. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2004. "Real-time output gaps in the estimation of Taylor rules: A red herring?," Economics Series Working Papers 218, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  36. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
  37. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  38. Nicolas A. Cuche, 2000. "Monetary policy with forward-looking rules: The Swiss case," Working Papers 00.10, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  39. Nikolay Markov & Carlos de Porres, 2011. "Is the Taylor Rule Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence from a Semi-Parametric Modeling Approach," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 11052, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
  40. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2013-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Enzo Rossi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.