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The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy

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  • Soojin Jo

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity using a quarterly VAR with stochastic volatility in mean. Stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary separately from changes in the level of oil prices, and thus the impact of oil price uncertainty can be examined in a more flexible yet tractable way. In addition, this paper substantially improves on the recovery of a historical uncertainty series by incorporating an additional uncertainty indicator, i.e., a realized volatility series from daily oil price data, into the estimation process. The estimation results show that an oil price uncertainty shock alone has negative effects on world industrial production.

Suggested Citation

  • Soojin Jo, 2012. "The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy," Staff Working Papers 12-40, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kırca, Mustafa & Canbay, Şerif & Pirali, Kerem, 2020. "Is the relationship between oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey permanent?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Richard A. Ashley & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2014. "Credible Granger-Causality Inference with Modest Sample Lengths: A Cross-Sample Validation Approach," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Matthew Klepacz, 2018. "Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. James D. Hamilton, 2013. "Oil prices, exhaustible resources and economic growth," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 1, pages 29-63, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Ali Sekkach & Nabil Boubrahimi, 2022. "Oil price volatility and GDP for oil-importing countries: Case of Morocco [Volatilité des prix du pétrole et PIB des pays importateurs : Cas du Maroc]," Post-Print hal-03748687, HAL.
    7. Adesola Ibironke, 2021. "Africa’s Trade with China and US: Has COVID-19 Changed the Trends of Trade?," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 3(2), pages 55-66.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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