A New Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycle Transitions in a Model of Output and Employment
AbstractThis paper proposes a new framework for the impulse-response analysis of business cycle transitions. A cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model is found to be a congruent representation of post-war US employment and output data. In this model some parameters change according to the phase of the business cycle which effects employment and output simultaneously. The long run dynamics are characterized by a cointegrating vector including employment, output and a trend as a proxy for technological progress and capital accumulation. Short-run and long-run dynamics are jointly estimated in a Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes representing recession, growth and high growth. For the analysis of the dynamics of output and employment, a new set of impulse-response exercises is considered.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 59.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2001
Date of revision:
business cycles; impulse-response analysis; cointegration; regime shifts; Markov switching; labour hoarding;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
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