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Are the current account imbalances between EMU countries sustainable?

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  • Christian Schoder
  • Christian R. Proaño
  • Willi Semmler

Abstract

Using parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques, we analyze the sustainability of the recently growing current account imbalances in the euro area and test whether the European Monetary Union has aggravated these imbalances. Two alternative criteria for the as-sessment of external debt sustainability are considered: One based on the Transversality Condition of intertemporal optimization, and the other based on the stationarity properties of the stochastic process of the debt-GDP ratio. Econometric sustainability tests are performed using the pooled mean-group estimator and panel unit root tests, respectively. Variants of both test procedures with varying coefficients using penalized splines estimation are applied. We find empirical evidence suggesting that the introduction of the euro is associated with a regime shift from sustainability to unsustainability of external debt accumulation for the euro area.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 90-2012.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:90-2012

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Schoder, 2013. "The fundamentals of sovereign debt sustainability: Evidence from 15 OECD countries," IMK Working Paper 107-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  2. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2013. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-42, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.

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