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Current Account Imbalances in Europe

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Author Info

  • Philip R. Lane

    ()
    (Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin)

  • Barbara Pels

    ()
    (Union Bank of Switzerland)

Abstract

The European crisis is partly attributable to the sharp increase in external imbal- ances across Europe during the pre-crisis period. We examine current account imbal- ances in Europe over 1995-2007, together with the underlying saving and investment rates (and their subcomponents). We O?nd that the discrete expansion in current ac- count imbalances during the 2002-2007 period can be attributed to a strengthening in the link between growth forecasts and current account balances. A striking pattern was that greater optimism about future growth was associated with lower savings and higher construction investment, rather than investment in productive capital.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp397.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp397

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Keywords: current account; EMU;

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References

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  1. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Rubaszek, Michał, 2008. "On the empirical evidence of the intertemporal current account model for the euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0895, European Central Bank.
  2. Jörg Decressin & Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Current Accounts in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/127, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Integration: A European Perspective," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp265, IIIS.
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