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Regime switches in the volatility and correlation of financial institutions

Author

Listed:
  • Kris Boudt

    (KU Leuven
    Lessius
    V.U. University Amsterdam)

  • Jon Danielsson

    (London School of Economics)

  • Siem Jan Koopman

    (V.U. University Amsterdam
    Tinbergen Institute)

  • Andre Lucas

    (V.U. University Amsterdam
    Tinbergen Institute)

Abstract

We propose a parsimonious regime switching model to characterize the dynamics in the volatilities and correlations of US deposit banks' stock returns over 1994-2011. A first innovative feature of the model is that the within-regime dynamics in the volatilities and correlation depend on the shape of the Student t innovations. Secondly, the across-regime dynamics in the transition probabilities of both volatilities and correlations are driven by macro-financial indicators such as the Saint Louis Financial Stability index, VIX or TED spread. We find strong evidence of time-variation in the regime switching probabilities and the within-regime volatility of most banks. The within-regime dynamics of the equicorrelation seem to be constant over the period.

Suggested Citation

  • Kris Boudt & Jon Danielsson & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2012. "Regime switches in the volatility and correlation of financial institutions," Working Paper Research 227, National Bank of Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201210-227
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. BAUWENS, Luc & otranto, EDOARDO, 2013. "Modeling the dependence of conditional correlations on volatility," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013014, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Opschoor, Anne & van Dijk, Dick & van der Wel, Michel, 2014. "Predicting volatility and correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 435-447.
    3. H. Dewachter & G. de Walque & M. Emiris & P. Ilbas & J. Mitchell & R. Wouters, 2012. "Endogenous financial risk : The seventh international conference of the NBB," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 135-146, December.
    4. Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk & Michel van der Wel, 2013. "Predicting Covariance Matrices with Financial Conditions Indexes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-113/III, Tinbergen Institute.

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