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Option Formulas for Mean-Reverting Power Prices with Spikes

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  • de Jong, C.M.
  • Huisman, R.
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    Abstract

    Electricity prices are known to be very volatile and subject to frequent jumps due to system breakdown, demand shocks, and inelastic supply. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models should incorporate these spikes. We develop a framework to price European-style options that are consistent with the possibility of market spikes. The pricing framework is based on a regime jump model that disentangles mean-reversion from the spikes. In the model the spikes are truly time-specific events and therefore independent from the mean-reverting price process. This closely resembles the characteristics of electricity prices, as we show with Dutch APX spot price data in the period January 2001 till June 2002. Thanks to the independence of the two price processes in the model, we break derivative prices down in a mean-reverting value and a spike value. We use this result to show how the model can be made consistent with forward prices in the market and present closed-form formulas for European-style options.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam in its series ERIM Report Series Research in Management with number ERS-2002-96-F&A.

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    Date of creation: 22 Oct 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:242

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    Related research

    Keywords: electricity price modelling; energy markets; mean reversion; option pricing; power spikes;

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    Cited by:
    1. Melanie Houllier & Lilian M. De Menezes & Michael Tamvakis, 2014. "Time Varying Long Run Dynamics And Convergence In The Uk Energy Market," EcoMod2014 6970, EcoMod.
    2. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Inference for Markov-regime switching models of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology HSC/12/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    3. Joanna Janczura, 2014. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model: a risk premium approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 79(1), pages 1-30, February.
    4. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
    5. Weron, Rafal & Janczura, Joanna, 2010. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity wholesale market prices," MPRA Paper 26628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Timothy Christensen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2009. "It Never Rains but it Pours: Modeling the Persistence of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
    7. repec:dgr:uvatin:2003071 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kanamura, Takashi & O[combining macron]hashi, Kazuhiko, 2008. "On transition probabilities of regime switching in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1158-1172, May.
    9. M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2003. "Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-071/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti, 2006. "Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Italy," Working Papers, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica 20060301, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica, revised Apr 2006.
    11. Heikki Kemppi & Adriaan Perrels, 2003. "Liberalised Electricity Markets - Strengths and Weaknesses in Finland and Nordpool," Research Reports 97, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
    12. Higgs, Helen & Worthington, Andrew, 2008. "Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3172-3185, November.
    13. Möller, Christoph & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "Balancing energy strategies in electricity portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 2-11, January.

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