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Budget Balance: Through Revenue or Spending Adjustment: Evidence from Pakistan

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  • Nadeem Iqbal

    (Institute of Management Sciences, Hayatabad, Peshawar)

  • Wasim Shahid Malik

    (School of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad)

Abstract

In this study we analyze how government expenditures, taxes and debt respond to primary budget deficit in case of Pakistan during the period 1961 to 2007. Results from Johansen cointegration test support the existence of one cointegrating vector. Further to study the behaviour of intertemporal budget constraint, we use error correction model. The main result we obtain is that budget deficit is financed by taking loan and through monetization of debt; it is neither adjusted by increasing total revenues nor by decreasing total government expenditures. So a deficit does not generate long run stabilizing effect on total revenues and government expenditures and behaviour of these two is independent of each other.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 49 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 611–630

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:49:y:2010:i:4:p:611-630

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  1. Bennett T. McCallum, 1982. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Henning Bohn, . "Budget Balance Through Revenue or Spending Adjustments ? Some Historical Evidence for the United States (Reprint 013)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
  4. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  5. Meltzer, Allan H & Richard, Scott F, 1981. "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 914-27, October.
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  7. Bohn, Henning, 1991. "Budget balance through revenue or spending adjustments? : Some historical evidence for the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 333-359, June.
  8. Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992. "The power of cointegration tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
  11. von Furstenberg, George M & Green, R Jeffrey & Jeong, Jin-Ho, 1986. "Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 179-88, May.
  12. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
  13. Provopoulos, George & Zambaras, Athanassios, 1991. " Testing for Causality between Government Spending and Taxation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 68(1-3), pages 277-82, January.
  14. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  15. Buchanan, James M. & Wagner, Richard E., 1978. "Dialogues concerning fiscal religion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 627-636, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Ihtsham Padda, 2014. "On minimizing the welfare cost of fiscal policy: evidence from South Asia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1553-1572, May.

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