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Using cyclical regimes of output growth to predict jobless recoveries

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  • Michael J. Dueker

Abstract

Gaps between output and employment growth are often attributed to transitional phases by which the economy adjusts to shifts in the rate of trend productivity growth. Nevertheless, cyclical factors can also drive a wedge between output and employment growth. This article shows that one measure of cyclical dynamics-the expected output loss associated with a recession-helps predict the gap between output and employment growth in the coming four quarters. This measure of the output loss associated with a recession can take unexpected twists and turns as the recovery unfolds. The empirical results in this paper support the proposition that a weaker-than-expected rebound in the economy can partially mute employment growth for a time relative to output growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
Pages: 145-154

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2006:i:mar:p:145-154:n:v.88no.2

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Keywords: Employment (Economic theory);

References

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  1. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Stacey L. Schreft & Aarti Singh, 2003. "A closer look at jobless recoveries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 45-73.
  3. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  4. Sichel, D.E., 1988. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Papers 85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  5. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1997. "Modelling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9734/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  6. Yi Wen, 2005. "Labor hoarding and inventories," Working Papers 2005-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Assessing the jobless recovery," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-21.
  8. repec:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:3:p:311-40 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael Clements, 2000. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisation and Testing based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W32, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Mark A. Wynne & Nathan S. Balke, 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Research Paper 9201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  12. Robert J. Gordon, 1993. "The Jobless Recovery: Does It Signal a New Era of Productivity-led Growth?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 271-316.
  13. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
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