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Using cyclical regimes of output growth to predict jobless recoveries

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Author Info
Michael J. Dueker

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Abstract

Gaps between output and employment growth are often attributed to transitional phases by which the economy adjusts to shifts in the rate of trend productivity growth. Nevertheless, cyclical factors can also drive a wedge between output and employment growth. This article shows that one measure of cyclical dynamics-the expected output loss associated with a recession-helps predict the gap between output and employment growth in the coming four quarters. This measure of the output loss associated with a recession can take unexpected twists and turns as the recovery unfolds. The empirical results in this paper support the proposition that a weaker-than-expected rebound in the economy can partially mute employment growth for a time relative to output growth.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
Pages: 145-154
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2006:i:mar:p:145-154:n:v.88no.2

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Keywords: Employment (Economic theory);

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  2. Robert J. Gordon, 1993. "The Jobless Recovery: Does It Signal a New Era of Productivity-led Growth?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 271-316. [Downloadable!]
  3. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
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  6. Wynne, Mark A. & Balke, Nathan S., 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 183-189, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. repec:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:3:p:311-40 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Assessing the jobless recovery," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-21. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jeremy Piger & James Morley & Chang-Jin Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309. [Downloadable!]
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  10. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Yi Wen, 2005. "Labor hoarding and inventories," Working Papers 2005-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 224-36, April.
  13. Stacey L. Schreft & Aarti Singh, 2003. "A closer look at jobless recoveries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 45-73. [Downloadable!]
  14. Van Dijk, D. & Franses, P.H., 1997. "Modelling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Papers 9734/a, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute.
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