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Nonlinear relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Taiwan

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  • Shyh-Wei Chen
  • Chung-Hua Shen
  • Zixiong Xie
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    Abstract

    Using Taiwan data, the study employs Hamilton's (2001) flexible regression model to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. The results convincingly support Friedman's hypothesis that a rise in the inflation rate increases inflation uncertainty. This result, however, holds only in a positive inflation regime. When the inflation rate is in a negative inflation regime, one clearly notes that a drop in the inflation rate also increases inflation uncertainty. Thus Friedman's argument is complemented by advocating that a rise in the absolute inflation rate increases inflation uncertainty. Turning to Cukierman-Meltzer's hypothesis, both linear and nonlinear inflation uncertainties affect the inflation rate, where the former has positive but the latter has negative effects.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

    Volume (Year): 13 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 8 ()
    Pages: 529-533

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:13:y:2006:i:8:p:529-533

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    1. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
    2. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    3. Dahl, Christian M. & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 2003. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in regression models based on the theory of random fields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 141-164, May.
    4. Apergis, Nicholas, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, volatility and causality: evidence from panel data and the G7 countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-191, May.
    5. Ming Chien Lo & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Is the response of output to monetary policy asymmetric? evidence from a regime-switching coefficients model," Working Papers 2001-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
    7. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    8. Cosimano, Thomas F & Jansen, Dennis W, 1988. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 409-21, August.
    9. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    10. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
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