Rational Expectations in a VAR with Markov Switching
AbstractThis paper shows how a well known class of rational expectations hypotheses using linear vector autoregressions (VAR:s) can be extended to allow for unobservable Markov switching. The regime shift model used falls into the general framework of Hamilton (1990), but differs to the centered model actually implemented by Hamilton and others. The model here has the advantage that it is easier to estimate, and the intuitive appeal that the state dependence is symmetric. The contribution of the paper is to derive testable restrictions implied by rational expectations, which are linear when the forecast horizon is infinite. The restrictions on the autoregressive parameters are the same as those that appear in the centered model. As an illustration, we duplicate a test of the expectations hypothesis (EH) in Sola & Driffill (1994) on 3 and 6 month US bills on quarterly data, and find that their results may be fragile.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies in its series Seminar Papers with number 627.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 31 Oct 1997
Date of revision:
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Postal: Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Web page: http://www.iies.su.se/
More information through EDIRC
VAR; Markov chain; regime switching; rational expectations; expectations hypothesis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
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