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Striking a bargain: narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks

Author

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  • Budrys, Žymantas
  • Porqueddu, Mario
  • Sokol, Andrej

Abstract

We quantify the effects of wage bargaining shocks on macroeconomic aggregates using a structural vector auto-regression model for Germany. We identify exogenous variation in bargaining power from episodes of minimum wage introduction and industrial disputes. This narrative information disciplines the impulse responses to a wage bargaining shock of un-employment and output, and sharpens inference on the behaviour of other variables. The implied transmission mechanism is in line with the theoretical predictions of a large class of search and matching models. We also find that wage bargaining shocks explain a sizeable share of aggregate fluctuations in unemployment and inflation, that their pass-through to prices is very close to being full, and that they imply plausible dynamics for the vacancy rate, firms’ profits, and the labour share. JEL Classification: J2, J3, E32, C32

Suggested Citation

  • Budrys, Žymantas & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Striking a bargain: narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks," Working Paper Series 2602, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212602
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    industrial action; minimum wage; narrative restrictions; structural vector autoregression; wage bargaining;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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