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A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market

Author

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  • Consolo, Agostino
  • Foroni, Claudia
  • Martínez Hernández, Catalina

Abstract

We introduce a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency VAR model for the aggregate euro area labour market that features a structural identification via sign restrictions. The purpose of this paper is twofold: we aim at (i) providing reliable and timely forecasts of key labour market variables and (ii) enhancing the economic interpretation of the main movements in the labour market. We find satisfactory results in terms of forecasting, especially when looking at quarterly variables, such as employment growth and the job finding rate. Furthermore, we look into the shocks that drove the labour market and macroeconomic dynamics from 2002 to early 2020, with a first insight also on the COVID-19 recession. While domestic and foreign demand shocks were the main drivers during the Global Financial Crisis, aggregate supply conditions and labour supply factors reflecting the degree of lockdown-related restrictions have been important drivers of key labour market variables during the pandemic. JEL Classification: J6, C53, C32, C11

Suggested Citation

  • Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2021. "A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market," Working Paper Series 2601, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212601
    Note: 3572376
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Consolo, Agostino & Petroulakis, Filippos, 2022. "Did COVID-19 induce a reallocation wave?," Working Paper Series 2703, European Central Bank.
    2. Blagov, Boris & Schmidt, Torsten C., 2022. "Schätzung der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in NRW im dritten Quartal 2022: Ein Mixed-Frequency-Ansatz," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 73(4), pages 53-59.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; labour market; mixed frequency data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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