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Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting

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Author Info

  • Askitas, Nikos

    () (IZA)

  • Zimmermann, Klaus F.

    () (IZA and University of Bonn)

Abstract

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword searches and unemployment rates using monthly German data and exhibits a strong potential for the method used.

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File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp4201.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 4201.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Applied Economics Quarterly, 2009, 55 (2), 107-120. Courtesy of Duncker&Humblot Berlin, the DP contains a download link to the published version
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4201

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Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org

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Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
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Related research

Keywords: time-series analysis; internet; Google; keyword search; search engine; unemployment; predictions;

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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Measuring unemployment with Google
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-07-01 08:02:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. Francesco D’Amuri & Juri Marcucci, 2010. "“Google it!”Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search index," Working Papers 2010.31, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Maria De Paola & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2013. "Consumers’ Reactions to Negative Information on Product Quality: Evidence from Scanner Data," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 235-280, May.
  3. Tierney, Heather L.R. & Pan, Bing, 2009. "A Poisson Regression Examination of the Relationship between Website Traffic and Search Engine Queries," MPRA Paper 19895, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2010.
  4. Nikos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Prognosen aus dem Internet: weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(25), pages 402-408.
  5. McLaren, Nick & Shanbhogue, Rachana, 2011. "Using internet search data as economic indicators," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 134-140.
  6. Tefft, Nathan, 2011. "Insights on unemployment, unemployment insurance, and mental health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 258-264, March.
  7. Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen, 2009. "Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey-based Indicators vs. Google Trends," Ruhr Economic Papers 0155, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  8. Aleksandar Bradic, 2012. "The Role of Social Feedback in Financing of Technology Ventures," Papers 1301.2196, arXiv.org.
  9. Sofía B. Ramos & Helena Veiga & Pedro Latoeiro, 2013. "Predictability of stock market activity using Google search queries," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws130605, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  10. Yan Carrière-Swallow & Felipe Labbé, 2010. "Nowcasting With Google Trends in an Emerging Market," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 588, Central Bank of Chile.
  11. Francesco D'Amuri & Juri Marcucci, 2012. "The predictive power of Google searches in forecasting unemployment," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 891, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen, 2012. "Using Internet Data to Account for Special Events in Economic Forecasting," Ruhr Economic Papers 0382, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  13. Christoph Safferling & Aaron Lowen, 2011. "Economics in the Kingdom of Loathing: Analysis of Virtual Market Data," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-30, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  14. Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2011. "Detecting Mortgage Delinquencies," IZA Discussion Papers 5895, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Scheffel, Eric Michael, 2012. "Political uncertainty in a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 37318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Googlemetrie und Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirtschaftskrise," IZA Standpunkte 17, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Francesco, D'Amuri, 2009. "Predicting unemployment in short samples with internet job search query data," MPRA Paper 18403, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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  1. Economic Logic blog

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