Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom
AbstractThis paper provides new estimates of the macroeconomic effects of tax changes using a new narrative dataset for the United Kingdom. Identification is achieved by isolating ?exogenous? tax policy changes using the Romer and Romer narrative strategy. I find that a 1 percent cut in taxes increases GDP by 0.6 percent on impact and 2.5 percent over three years. The findings are remarkably similar to Romer and Romer narrative estimates for the United States, reinforcing the view that tax changes have powerful and persistent effects. ?Exogenous? tax changes are also shown to have contributed to important episodes in the UK business cycle.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 103 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (June)
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
- H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
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