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Output effects of a measure of tax shocks based on changes in legislation for Portugal

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  • Manuel Coutinho Pereira
  • Lara Wemans

Abstract

This paper develops a new measure of quarterly discretionary tax shocks for Portugal that result from changes in legislation, following the narrative approach. It covers the years from 1996 to 2012 and was based on a comprehensive analysis of tax policy measures taken in the course of this period. The …ndings point to strongly negative and persistent e¤ects of legislated tax increases on GDP and private consumption, matching the tendency of the narrative approach to yield comparatively high tax multipliers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w201315.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201315

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  1. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
  2. Manuel Coutinho Pereira & Lara Wemans, 2013. "Output effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a structural VAR approach," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  3. Agnello, Luca & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2009. "Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1118, European Central Bank.
  4. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  5. Savina Princen & Gilles Mourre & Dario Paternoster & George-Marian Isbasoiu, 2013. "Discretionary tax measures: pattern and impact on tax elasticities," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 499, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  6. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "The Consumption Response to Income Changes," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 479-506, 09.
  7. Karel Mertens & Morten Overgaard Ravn, 2011. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 27-54, January.
  8. David S. Johnson & Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2004. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," NBER Working Papers 10784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Andrea Pescatori & Daniel Leigh & Jaime Guajardo & Pete Devries, 2011. "A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 11/128, International Monetary Fund.
  10. James Cloyne, 2013. "Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1507-28, June.
  11. Gabriela Lopes de Castro, 2006. "Consumption, Disposable Income and Liquidity Constraints," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  12. Cloyne, James S, 2010. "Discretionary tax shocks in the United Kingdom 1945-2009: a narrative account and dataset," MPRA Paper 34913, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Manuel Coutinho Pereira & Lara Wemans, 2013. "The macroeconomic effects of legislated tax changes in Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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