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The missing link: monetary policy and the labor share

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  • Cantore, Cristiano

    (Bank of England, Centre for Macroeconomics and University of Surrey)

  • Ferroni, Filippo

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • León-Ledesma, Miguel

    (University of Kent and CEPR)

Abstract

The textbook New Keynesian (NK) model implies that the labor share is procyclical conditional on a monetary policy shock. We present evidence that a monetary policy tightening robustly increased the labor share and decreased real wages during the Great Moderation period in the US, the euro area, the UK, Australia and Canada. We show that this is inconsistent not only with the basic NK model, but with medium-scale NK models commonly used for monetary policy analysis and where it is possible to break the direct link between the labor share and the inverse mark-up. Our results imply that either NK models are unable to separate the dynamics of the labor share from the markup, or that markups do not respond in the way NK models predict.

Suggested Citation

  • Cantore, Cristiano & Ferroni, Filippo & León-Ledesma, Miguel, 2020. "The missing link: monetary policy and the labor share," Bank of England working papers 857, Bank of England, revised 29 May 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0857
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    Cited by:

    1. Bilbiie, F. O. & Trabandt, M., 2023. "Sticky Prices or Sticky Wages? An Equivalence Result," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2369, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    3. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Price, Simon & Petrova, Katerina, 2018. "Time varying cointegration and the UK Great Ratios," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 23320, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    4. Adriana Grasso & Juan Passadore & Facundo Piguillem, 2020. "The Macroeconomics of Hedging Income Shares," EIEF Working Papers Series 2009, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2020.
    5. Lenney, Jamie, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission, the labour share and HANK models," Bank of England working papers 960, Bank of England.
    6. Greg Kaplan & Piotr Zoch, 2020. "Markups, Labor Market Inequality and the Nature of Work," Working Papers 2020-09, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    7. Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2021. "The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1592-1620.
    8. Bilbiie, Florin & Melitz, Marc J, 2020. "Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 15583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Sekyu Choi & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2021. "Labour Share and Productivity Dynamics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2856-2886.
    10. Chu, Shiou-Yen, 2020. "A note on labor share, price markup and monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    11. Matteo G. Richiardi & Luis Valenzuela, 2024. "Firm heterogeneity and the aggregate labour share," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 38(1), pages 66-101, March.
    12. Andrejs Zlobins, 2021. "On the Time-varying Effects of the ECB's Asset Purchases," Working Papers 2021/02, Latvijas Banka.
    13. Nikolaos Charalampidis, 2020. "The U.S. Labor Income Share And Automation Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 294-318, January.
    14. Siena Daniele, & Zago Riccardo., 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    15. Daniil Lomonosov, 2023. "Shocks of Business Activity and Specific Shocks to Oil Market in DSGE Model of Russian Economy and Their Influence Under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(4), pages 44-79, December.
    16. Lea Steininger & Jan Philipp Fritsche, 2022. "The Labor Share is a Catalyst for Monetary Policy - Two Million Firms' Production Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp326, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    17. Carbajal-De-Nova, Carolina, 2021. "Wages and inflation in Mexican manufacturing. A two-period comparison: 1994-2003 and 2007-2016," MPRA Paper 109555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Kraft, Kornelius & Lammers, Alexander, 2021. "Bargaining Power and the Labor Share - a Structural Break Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242342, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Jan Philipp Fritsche & Lea Steininger, 2021. "Zooming in on Monetary Policy - The Labor Share and Production Dynamics of Two Million Firms," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1967, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Marius Clemens & Ulrich Eydam & Maik Heinemann, 2020. "Inequality over the Business Cycle – The Role of Distributive Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1852, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Christopher J. Nekarda & Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Price‐Cost Markup," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 319-353, December.
    22. Shiou‐Yen Chu, 2022. "Markups, inequality and monetary‐fiscal policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 367-395, September.
    23. Laura Gómez-Acevedo & Marc Hofstetter, 2020. "Disinflations and income distribution," Documentos CEDE 18481, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    24. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Fasianos, Apostolos, 2023. "Modelling monetary policy’s impact on labour markets under Covid-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor share; monetary policy shocks; DSGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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