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Uncertainty and herding behavior: evidence from cryptocurrencies

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  • Coskun, Esra Alp
  • Lau, Chi Keung Marco
  • Kahyaoglu, Hakan

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the existence of herding behavior in the cryptocurrency market under uncertainty by employing cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) of returns, ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) methods and Time-Varying Markov-Switching (TV-MS) model for both overall sample and sub-periods which was determined based on the results of Quandt-Andrews and Bai-Perron breakpoint tests. We utilized the daily data of the 14 leading cryptocurrencies in terms of closing price, market cap and transaction volume. We also used dummy variables to analyze whether or not an asymmetric behavior occurred during the "up and down" market periods. Our results for the overall sample refer to an anti-herding behavior in each model. However, the results of the TV-MS model for the 3rd sub-period (2/28/2017−1/16/2018) imply the existence of a herding behavior in the low volatility regime, an anti-herding behavior occurred during the high volatility regime and the effect of uncertainty was significant on the anti-herding behavior. Finally, our results suggest that there was no significant asymmetric behavior during the "up and down" market periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Coskun, Esra Alp & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Kahyaoglu, Hakan, 2020. "Uncertainty and herding behavior: evidence from cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:54:y:2020:i:c:s0275531920300957
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101284
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    2. Youssef, Mouna & Waked, Sami Sobhi, 2022. "Herding behavior in the cryptocurrency market during COVID-19 pandemic: The role of media coverage," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Jiang, Yonghong & Wu, Lanxin & Tian, Gengyu & Nie, He, 2021. "Do cryptocurrencies hedge against EPU and the equity market volatility during COVID-19? – New evidence from quantile coherency analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Mohamad, Azhar & Stavroyiannis, Stavros, 2022. "Do birds of a feather flock together? Evidence from time-varying herding behaviour of bitcoin and foreign exchange majors during Covid-19," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    6. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
    7. Kumar Kulbhaskar, Anamika & Subramaniam, Sowmya, 2023. "Breaking news headlines: Impact on trading activity in the cryptocurrency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Rubbaniy, Ghulame & Polyzos, Stathis & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Tessema, Abiot, 2021. "COVID-19, Lockdowns and herding towards a cryptocurrency market-specific implied volatility index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Herding; Uncertainty; Cryptocurrency market; Behavioral finance; Time varying markov-switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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