This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Manic-depressive Price Fluctuations in the Financial Market – How Does the "Invisible Hand" Do it?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Stephan Schulmeister (WIFO)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Speculative markets such as those for stocks or currencies typically have an extremely short time horizon for transactions. Yet at the same time, stock prices and exchange rates go up or down in trend curves of several years ("bull" and "bear" markets). The paper takes the dollar/euro exchange rate to study how short-term price movements accumulate to produce long-term trends. It found that speculative prices fluctuate around "underlying trends". The "trending" phenomenon repeats iself along a range of time scales. Long-term trends develop from the accumulation of price waves based on daily rates which continue longer in one direction than the other across several years. A succession of such trends produces a pattern typical for the long-term dynamism of speculative prices: they vary in irregular cycles across a factual balance range without inclining to converge towards that balance.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/jsp/index.jsp?fid=23923&id=30300&typeid=8&display_mode=2&pub_language=2&language=2
File Format: text/html
File Function: Abstract
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/servlet/wwa.upload.DownloadServlet/bdoc/PRIVATE37075/WP_2007_305$.PDF
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: full text
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 305.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 18 Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2007:i:305

Contact details of provider:
Postal: A-1103 Wien, Postfach 91
Phone: (+43 1) 798 26 01-0
Fax: (+43 1) 798 93 86
Web page: http://www.wifo.ac.at/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Ilse Schulz).

Related research
Keywords: Finanzmärkte Handelstechniken Wechselkursdynamik

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    Other versions:
  5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Leroy, S.F., 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets And Martingales," University of California Santa Barbara - Department of Economics 13-89, California Santa Barbara - Department of Economics.
  8. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 289-306. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data," WIFO Working Papers 289, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  11. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? The RePEc project started in 1997. Its precursor, NetEc, dates back to 1993.

This page was last updated on 2008-8-27.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.