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Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange

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Author Info
Thomas Gehrig
Lukas Menkhoff (University of Hannover, Germany)

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Abstract

This work extends earlier survey studies on the use of technical analysis by considering flow analysis as a third form of information production. Moreover, the survey covers FX dealers and also the rising fund managers. Technical analysis has gained importance over time and is now the most equally spread kind of analysis. It has by far the greatest importance in FX dealing and is second in fund management. Charts are used for shorter-term forecasting horizons while flows dominate at the shortest-term and fundamentals at longer horizons. Preferred users of each kind of analysis exhibit different views about market frictions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.301
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 327-338
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:11:y:2006:i:4:p:327-338

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Chang, P H Kevin & Osler, Carol L, 1999. "Methodical Madness: Technical Analysis and the Irrationality of Exchange-Rate Forecasts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 636-61, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-60, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Carol Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68. [Downloadable!]
  6. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 289-306. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff,Lukas, 2004. "The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange: Will Fundamentals Ultimately Dominate?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-308, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Lütje, Torben, 2004. "To Be Good or To Be Better: Asset Managers Attitudes Towards Herding," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-297, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "This paper examines the significance of different fundamental regimes by applying various monetary models of the exchange rate to one of the politically most important exchange rates, the exchange rat," Ruhr Economic Papers 0134, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Long swings and chaos in the exchange rate in a DSGE model with a Taylor rule," Research Discussion Papers 19/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market," WIFO Working Papers 291, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Research Discussion Papers 21/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  8. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael & Schröder, Michael, 2005. "Do Dollar Forecasters Believe too Much in PPP?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-321, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Instrument rules in monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Research Discussion Papers 22/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Mikael Bask, 2009. "Announcement effects on exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 64-84. [Downloadable!]
  11. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2005. "The Use of Trading Strategies by Fund Managers: Some First Survey Evidence," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-314, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael, 2007. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: longer-term, nonlinear orientation on PPP," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-376, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Frömmel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "Do Fundamentals Matter for the D-Mark/Euro-Dollar? A Regime Switching Approach," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-289, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Manic-depressive Price Fluctuations in the Financial Market – How Does the "Invisible Hand" Do it?," WIFO Working Papers 305, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  15. Michael Kühl, 2008. "Strong comovements of exchange rates: Theoretical and empirical cases when currencies become the same asset," cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 76, cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, University of Goettingen (Germany)., revised 03 Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
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