IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/han/dpaper/dp-278.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange - The Workhorse Gains Further Ground

Author

Listed:
  • Gehrig, Thomas
  • Menkhoff, Lukas

Abstract

This work extends earlier survey studies on the use of technical analysis by considering flow analysis as a third form of information production. Moreover the survey covers FX dealers and also the rising fund managers. Technical analysis has gained importance over time and is now the most equally spread kind of analysis. It has by far the greatest importance in FX dealing and is second in fund management. Charts are used for shorter-term forecasting horizons while flows dominate at the shortest-term and fundamentals at longer horizons. Preferred users of each kind of analysis exhibit different views about market frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange - The Workhorse Gains Further Ground," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-278, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-278
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-278.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. "Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-182, March.
    3. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1996. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Working Papers _005, University of California at Berkeley, Haas School of Business.
    4. Chang, P H Kevin & Osler, Carol L, 1999. "Methodical Madness: Technical Analysis and the Irrationality of Exchange-Rate Forecasts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 636-661, October.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 289-306.
    6. Vigfusson, Robert, 1997. "Switching between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 291-305, October.
    7. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845.
    8. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
    9. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June.
    10. Carol L. Osler, 2001. "Currency orders and exchange-rate dynamics: explaining the success of technical analysis," Staff Reports 125, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, December.
    12. Christopher J. Neely & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "Exchange rate intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 107-108.
    13. Fiess, Norbert M & MacDonald, Ronald, 2002. "Towards the fundamentals of technical analysis: analysing the information content of High, Low and Close prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 353-374, May.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
    15. Oberlechner, Thomas, 2001. "Importance of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the European Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 81-93, January.
    16. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.
    17. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
    18. Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October.
    19. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June.
    20. Carol L. Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68.
    21. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1998. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1130, June.
    22. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
    23. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
    24. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-318, October.
    25. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    26. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
    27. Curcio, Riccardo, et al, 1997. "Do Technical Trading Rules Generate Profits? Conclusions from the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 267-280, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schmidt, Robert & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2004. "Sterilized Foreign Exchange Market Interventions in a Chartist-Fundamentalist Exchange Rate Model," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 50, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    3. Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski & Paweł Sakowski, 2012. "Investment strategies beating the market. What can we squeeze from the market?," Working Papers 2012-04, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    4. Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert & Gebka, Bartosz, 2014. "Does high frequency trading affect technical analysis and market efficiency? And if so, how?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 131-157.
    5. Ślepaczuk Robert & Sakowski Paweł & Zakrzewski Grzegorz, 2018. "Investment Strategies that Beat the Market. What Can We Squeeze from the Market?," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 36-55, December.
    6. Sang Il Lee, 2020. "Deeply Equal-Weighted Subset Portfolios," Papers 2006.14402, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    2. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
    5. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 37582, Juni.
    6. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June.
    7. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
    8. Stefan Reitz & M.P Taylor, 2006. "The Coordination Channel of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 16, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Taylor, Mark & Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2014. "Forty Years, Thirty Currencies and 21,000 Trading Rules: A Large-scale, Data-Snooping Robust Analysis of Technical Trading in t," CEPR Discussion Papers 10018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    11. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    12. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan, 2016. "Technical trading: Is it still beating the foreign exchange market?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 188-208.
    13. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
    15. de Zwart, Gerben & Markwat, Thijs & Swinkels, Laurens & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "The economic value of fundamental and technical information in emerging currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 581-604, June.
    16. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Technical Analysis and Exchange Rate Dynamics," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25857, Juni.
    17. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3673-3695, July.
    18. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Working Papers hal-04141348, HAL.
    19. Stefan Reitz & Mark Taylor, 2012. "FX intervention in the Yen-US dollar market: a coordination channel perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 111-128, June.
    20. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange markets; technical analysis; flow analysis; fundamentals; fund managers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-278. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Heidrich, Christian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwhande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.