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Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates

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Author Info
Carol Osler

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Abstract

“Support” and “resistance” levels—points at which an exchange rate trend may be interrupted and reversed—are widely used for short-term exchange rate forecasting. Nevertheless, the levels’ ability to predict intraday trend interruptions has never been rigorously evaluated. This article undertakes such an analysis, using support and resistance levels provided to customers by six firms active in the foreign exchange market. The author offers strong evidence that the levels help to predict intraday trend interruptions. However, the levels’ predictive power is found to vary across the exchange rates and firms examined.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Economic Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages: 53-68
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2000:i:jul:p:53-68:n:v.6no.2

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Forecasting;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," NBER Working Papers 7613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Traders, Market Microstructure and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Curcio, Riccardo, et al, 1997. "Do Technical Trading Rules Generate Profits? Conclusions from the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 267-80, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jon Danielsson & Richard Payne, 1999. "Real Trading Patterns and Prices in Spot Foreign Exchange Markets," FMG Discussion Papers dp320, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Figliuoli, L., 1991. "Every minute counts in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andreas Fischer, 2004. "Price Clustering in the FX Market: A Disaggregate Analysis using Central Bank Interventions," Working Papers 04.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Thomas Klitgaard & Laura Weir, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and net positions of speculators in the futures market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 17-28. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2001. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 1999-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Nguyen, James, 2004. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Is It Applicable to the Foreign Exchange Market?," Economics Working Papers wp04-20, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange - The Workhorse Gains Further Ground," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-278, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  9. Carol L. Osler, 2001. "Currency orders and exchange-rate dynamics: explaining the success of technical analysis," Staff Reports 125, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  10. Alvaro Montenegro, 2006. "La Información Bursátil en Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE ECONOMÍA 003031, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ. [Downloadable!]
  11. Canegrati, Emanuele, 2008. "A Non-Random Walk down Canary Wharf," MPRA Paper 9871, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Q. Farooq Akram, & Dagfinn Rime & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Working Paper 2005/12, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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