Aggregate Trading Behaviour of Technical Models and the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate 1976-2007
Abstract
The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen-dollar exchange rate. I show first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 2007. I then show that the aggregate transactions and positions of technical models exert an excess demand pressure on currency markets since they are mostly on the same side of the market. When technical models produce trading signals almost all of them are either buying or selling, when they maintain open positions they are either long or short. A strong interaction prevails between exchange rate movements and the transactions triggered by technical models. An initial rise of the exchange rate due to news, e.g., is systematically lengthened through a sequence of technical buy signals.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 324.Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2008:i:324
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Arsenal Object 20, A-1030 Wien
Phone: (+43 1) 798 26 01-0
Fax: (+43 1) 798 93 86
Web page: http://www.wifo.ac.at/
More information through EDIRC
Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate; Technical Trading; Speculation; Heterogeneous Agents;Other versions of this item:
- Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Aggregate trading behaviour of technical models and the yen/dollar exchange rate 1976-2007," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 270-279, August.
- NEP-ALL-2008-09-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-09-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2008-09-05 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2008-09-05 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2008-09-05 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June.
- David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003.
"Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis,"
European Financial Management,
European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66.
- Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2001. "Herd Behavior and Cascading in Capital Markets: A Review and Synthesis," MPRA Paper 5186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2005.
"The Interaction between Technical Currency Trading and Exchange Rate Fluctuations,"
Finance
0512033, EconWPA.
- Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "The Interaction between Technical Currency Trading and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," WIFO Working Papers 264, WIFO.
- Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2005.
"Do currency markets absorb news quickly?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 197-217, March.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," NBER Working Papers 11041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004.
"The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June.
- Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-276, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003.
"Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?,"
Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt12z9x4c5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt5fc508pt, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2002. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," NBER Working Papers 9393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Antonio Garcia Pascual & Menzie David Chinn, 2004. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," IMF Working Papers 04/73, International Monetary Fund.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5fc508pt, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
- Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff,Lukas, 2004.
"The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange: Will Fundamentals Ultimately Dominate?,"
Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover
dp-308, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2005. "The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange:Will Fundamentals Ultimately Dominate?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 519-540, 04.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007.
"The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2000.
"How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?,"
NBER Working Papers
7524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 289-306.
- Ian Marsh & Menzie Chinn & Yin-Wong Cheung, 1999. "How do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," Working Papers wp99-21, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David & Marsh, Ian W, 1999. "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233 Elsevier.
- Carol L. Osler, 2006. "Macro lessons from microstructure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 55-80.
- Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009.
"Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?,"
Review of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2008. "Profitability of Technical Stock Trading: Has it Moved from Daily to Intraday Data?," WIFO Working Papers 323, WIFO.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005.
"Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting,"
NBER Working Papers
11042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 405-414, May.
- Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Oberlechner, Thomas, 2001. "Importance of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the European Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 81-93, January.
- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2006.
"Understanding order flow,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 3-23.
- Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University), 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-19, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 11748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- C. L. Osler, 2002.
"Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets,"
Staff Reports
150, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Osler, Carol L., 2005. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-241, March.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2008.
"Components of the profitability of technical currency trading,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(11), pages 917-930.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "Components of the Profitability of Technical Currency Trading," WIFO Working Papers 263, WIFO.
- Carl Chiarella & Tony He & Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-057/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000.
"Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
251, CESifo Group Munich.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
- Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
Citations
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2008:i:324For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

