IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocoma/v25y2022ics2405851321000246.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rational destabilization in commodity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Batista Soares, David
  • Borocco, Etienne

Abstract

This article tackles the issue of rational destabilization in the commodity markets. The theoretical framework is a three-period model with futures positions revised within the intermediate holding period of the spot market. Technical traders enter the market in the intermediate period. The model outcome is a multiplicity of equilibria that are a source of instability. We show that the risk management of the rising weight of technical trading generates a higher variability in spot prices and damages long hedging. Furthermore, this article highlights caveats about the empirical measures of hedging pressure and excessive speculation that can be biased.

Suggested Citation

  • Batista Soares, David & Borocco, Etienne, 2022. "Rational destabilization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:25:y:2022:i:c:s2405851321000246
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2021.100190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851321000246
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcomm.2021.100190?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    2. Bruno Biais & Peter Bossaerts & Chester Spatt, 2010. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice Under Asymmetric Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1503-1543, April.
    3. Goldstein, Itay & Ozdenoren, Emre & Yuan, Kathy, 2013. "Trading frenzies and their impact on real investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 566-582.
    4. Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-952, October.
    5. Stein, Jeremy C, 1987. "Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1123-1145, December.
    6. Masahiro Watanabe, 2008. "Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 229-272, February.
    7. Koutmos, Gregory, 1997. "Feedback trading and the autocorrelation pattern of stock returns: further empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 625-636, August.
    8. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    9. Breeden, Douglas T., 1984. "Futures markets and commodity options: Hedging and optimality in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 275-300, April.
    10. Adams, Zeno & Glück, Thorsten, 2015. "Financialization in commodity markets: A passing trend or the new normal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 93-111.
    11. Scott H. Irwin & Satoko Yoshimaru, 1999. "Managed futures, positive feedback trading, and futures price volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(7), pages 759-776, October.
    12. Ing-Haw Cheng & Andrei Kirilenko & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Convective Risk Flows in Commodity Futures Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(5), pages 1733-1781.
    13. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Gary B. Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2014. "Editor's Choice Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: The Inefficient Performance and Persistence of Commodity Trading Advisors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(11), pages 3099-3132.
    14. Ronald W. Anderson & Jean-Pierre Danthine, 1983. "The Time Pattern of Hedging and the Volatility of Futures Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 50(2), pages 249-266.
    15. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    16. Spiegel, Matthew, 1998. "Stock Price Volatility in a Multiple Security Overlapping Generations Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 419-447.
    17. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2016. "A Model of Financialization of Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1511-1556, August.
    18. Hirshleifer, David, 1988. "Risk, Futures Pricing, and the Organization of Production in Commodity Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1206-1220, December.
    19. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    20. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2015. "Speculation in the Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 621-649, June.
    21. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    22. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015. "Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 187-205, February.
    23. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Rentzler, Joel C, 1987. "Professionally Managed, Publicly Traded Commodity Funds," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(2), pages 175-199, April.
    24. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 2006. "Feedback and the success of irrational investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 311-338, August.
    25. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Why Do Hedgers Trade So Much?," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(S2), pages 183-207.
    26. Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Spot Prices? New Evidence for Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 595-616, November.
    27. Driskill, Robert & McCafferty, Stephen & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1991. "Speculative Intensity and Spot and Futures Price Variability," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 737-751, October.
    28. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    29. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015. "Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 187-205, February.
    30. Chaves, Denis B. & Viswanathan, Vivek, 2016. "Momentum and mean-reversion in commodity spot and futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 39-53.
    31. Tokic, Damir, 2012. "Speculation and the 2008 oil bubble: The DCOT Report analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 541-550.
    32. Newbery, David M, 1987. "When Do Futures Destabilize Spot Prices?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 291-297, June.
    33. Tokic, Damir, 2011. "Rational destabilizing speculation, positive feedback trading, and the oil bubble of 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2051-2061, April.
    34. Brian J. Henderson & Neil D. Pearson & Li Wang, 2015. "Editor's Choice New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1285-1311.
    35. Kawai, Masahiro, 1983. "Price Volatility of Storable Commodities under Rational Expectations in Spot and Futures Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(2), pages 435-459, June.
    36. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Shen, Qian & Sharma, Subhash C., 2010. "Trend-following trading strategies in commodity futures: A re-examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 409-426, February.
    37. Han, Yufeng & Hu, Ting & Yang, Jian, 2016. "Are there exploitable trends in commodity futures prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 214-234.
    38. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
    39. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    40. Jayant Vivek Ganguli & Liyan Yang, 2009. "Complementarities, Multiplicity, and Supply Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 90-115, March.
    41. Ivar Ekeland & Delphine Lautier & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2019. "Hedging pressure and speculation in commodity markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(1), pages 83-123, July.
    42. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 300-318, February.
    43. Yin, Libo & Yang, Qingyuan, 2016. "Predicting the oil prices: Do technical indicators help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 338-350.
    44. K. Geert Rouwenhorst & Ke Tang, 2012. "Commodity Investing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 447-467, October.
    45. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    46. Ahmet Enis Kocagil, 1997. "Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 115-125.
    47. Naomi E. Boyd & Bahattin Büyükşahin & Michael S. Haigh & Jeffrey H. Harris, 2016. "The Prevalence, Sources, and Effects of Herding," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 671-694, July.
    48. Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Spot Prices? New Evidence for Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1-21, November.
    49. Abby Kim, 2015. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Commodity Markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 696-714, August.
    50. Adams, Zeno & Glueck, Thorsten, 2014. "Financialization in Commodity Markets: A Passing Trend or the New Normal?," Working Papers on Finance 1413, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Aug 2015.
    51. Louis P. Lukac & B. Wade Brorsen & Scott H. Irwin, 1988. "Similarity of computer guided technical trading systems," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, February.
    52. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1983. "Hedger Diversity in Futures Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(37), pages 370-389, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Wu, Tong & Zhong, Huaming & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Alice Carole Thomas & Jianxin Wang, 2024. "Hedging pressure and oil volatility: Insurance versus liquidity demands," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 252-280, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    2. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    3. Mohammad Isleimeyyeh, 2020. "The role of financial investors in determining the commodity futures risk premium," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1375-1397, September.
    4. Wen, Xiaoqian & Xie, Yuxin & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "Extreme price co-movement of commodity futures and industrial production growth: An empirical evaluation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. Libo Yin & Qingyuan Yang & Zhi Su, 2017. "Predictability of structural co-movement in commodity prices: the role of technical indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 795-812, May.
    6. Ahmet Enis Kocagil, 1997. "Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 115-125.
    7. Itay Goldstein & Liyan Yang, 2022. "Commodity Financialization and Information Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2613-2667, October.
    8. Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Alice Carole Thomas & Jianxin Wang, 2024. "Hedging pressure and oil volatility: Insurance versus liquidity demands," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 252-280, February.
    9. Celso Brunetti & Jeffrey H. Harris & Bahattin Büyükşahin, 2024. "Crude Oil Price Movements and Institutional Traders," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, February.
    10. Galán-Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio & Labeaga, José M. & Martín-García, Rodrigo, 2023. "Cointegration between high base metals prices and backwardation: Getting ready for the metals super-cycle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Xiao, Qin & Yan, Meilan & Zhang, Dalu, 2023. "Commodity market financialization, herding and signals: An asymmetric GARCH R-vine copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Mapping algorithms, agricultural futures, and the relationship between commodity investment flows and crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 486-504.
    13. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    14. Chincarini, Ludwig B. & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "The challenges of oil investing: Contango and the financialization of commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    15. ap Gwilym, Rhys & Ebrahim, M. Shahid & El Alaoui, Abdelkader O. & Rahman, Hamid & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2020. "Financial frictions and the futures pricing puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 358-371.
    16. Adams, Zeno & Collot, Solène & Kartsakli, Maria, 2020. "Have commodities become a financial asset? Evidence from ten years of Financialization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Ivar Ekeland & Delphine Lautier & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2019. "Hedging pressure and speculation in commodity markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(1), pages 83-123, July.
    18. Filippo Natoli, 2021. "Financialization Of Commodities Before And After The Great Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 488-511, April.
    19. Dedi, Valentina & Mandilaras, Alex, 2022. "Trader positions and the price of oil in the futures market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 448-460.
    20. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Financial Speculation Impact on Agricultural and Other Commodity Return Volatility: Implications for Sustainable Development and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-27, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium model; Commodity; Speculation; Technical trading; Futures markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:25:y:2022:i:c:s2405851321000246. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcomm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.