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Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel data

Author

Listed:
  • Joao, Igor Custodio
  • Lucas, André
  • Schaumburg, Julia
  • Schwaab, Bernd

Abstract

We propose a dynamic clustering model for uncovering latent time-varying group structures in multivariate panel data. The model is dynamic in three ways. First, the cluster location and scale matrices are time-varying to track gradual changes in cluster characteristics over time. Second, all units can transition between clusters based on a Hidden Markov model (HMM). Finally, the HMM’s transition matrix can depend on lagged time-varying cluster distances as well as economic covariates. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the units can be classified reliably in a variety of challenging settings. Incorporating dynamics in the cluster composition proves empirically important in an a study of 299 European banks between 2008Q1 and 2018Q2. We find that approximately 3% of banks transition per quarter on average. Transition probabilities are in part explained by differences in bank profitability, suggesting that low interest rates can lead to long-lasting changes in financial industry structure. JEL Classification: G21, C33

Suggested Citation

  • Joao, Igor Custodio & Lucas, André & Schaumburg, Julia & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel data," Working Paper Series 2577, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212577
    Note: 955417
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2577~abb08ca67a.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. André Lucas & Julia Schaumburg & Bernd Schwaab, 2019. "Bank Business Models at Zero Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 542-555, July.
    2. J. A. Hartigan & M. A. Wong, 1979. "A K‐Means Clustering Algorithm," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(1), pages 100-108, March.
    3. Anne Opschoor & Pawel Janus & André Lucas & Dick Van Dijk, 2018. "New HEAVY Models for Fat-Tailed Realized Covariances and Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 643-657, October.
    4. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
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    Cited by:

    1. Igor Custodio João & Andre Lucas & Julia Schaumburg, 2021. "Clustering Dynamics and Persistence for Financial Multivariate Panel Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-040/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Zhang, Haozhe, 2022. "Equity clusters through the lens of realized semicorrelations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank business models; dynamic clustering; Hidden Markov Model; panel data; score-driven dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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