Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem
AbstractThis paper investigates a regime switching model of stochastic lumber prices in the context of an optimal tree harvesting problem. Using lumber derivatives prices, two lumber price models are calibrated: a regime switching model and a single regime model. In the regime switching model, the lumber price can be in one of two regimes in which different mean reverting price processes prevail. An optimal tree harvesting problem is specified in terms of a linear complementarity problem which is solved using a fully implicit finite difference, fully-coupled, numerical approach. The land value and critical harvesting prices are found to be significantly different depending on which price model is used. The regime switching model shows promise as a parsimonious model of timber prices that can be incorporated into forestry investment problems.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Waterloo, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 08003.
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
optimal tree harvesting; regime switching; calibration; lumber derivatives prices; fully implicit finite difference approach;
Other versions of this item:
- Chen, Shan & Insley, Margaret, 2012. "Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 201-219.
- Shan chen & Margaret Insley, 2010. "Regime Switching in Stochastic Models of Commodity Prices: An Application to an Optimal Tree Harvesting Problem," Working Papers 1016, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2010.
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-09-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2008-09-05 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ORE-2008-09-05 (Operations Research)
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