This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Likelihood-based estimation and specification analysis of one- and two-factor SV models with leverage effects

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Garland Durham
Abstract

Techniques for simulated maximum likelihood (SML) estimation, filtering, and assessing the fit of stochastic volatility models are examined. Both one- and two-factor models (with leverage effects) are considered. The techniques are computationally efficient, robust, straightforward to implement, and easy to adapt to new models. Using these techniques, it is possible to estimate single-factor models over data sets of several thousand observations in several seconds. The computational efficiency of the techniques means that Monte Carlo studies assessing both the small sample statistical properties as well as the numerical properties of the estimators are easy to do. Such studies are important for all simulation estimators, including simulation-based Bayesian and method of moments estimators. The application looks at S\&P 500 index returns. Even the simple single-factor models adequately capture the dynamics of volatility; the problem is to get the shape of the returns distribution right. Although including a second volatility factor improves the fit over the basic single-factor models, a new formulation of the SV-t model (a single factor model, but with $t$ rather than normal errors in the observation equation) provides the best fit. However, all the models considered fail in a similar manner: they are unable to capture the left tail of the distribution. Fitting this part of the distribution is important for option-pricing and risk management. Although it may be possible to come up with ad hoc parametric models that fit particular data series and sample periods, a promising alternative might be to look at single-factor models with flexible forms for the error distributions

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/gdurham/sv.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Christopher F. Baum)
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 294.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:294

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Email:
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: stochastic volatility simulation-based estimation model diagnostics

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chernov, Mikhail & Gallant, A. Ronald & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamic," Working Papers 02-03, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. A. Ronald Gallant & Chien-Te Hsu & George Tauchen, 1999. "Using Daily Range Data To Calibrate Volatility Diffusions And Extract The Forward Integrated Variance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 617-631, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Sandmann, Gleb & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1998. "Estimation of stochastic volatility models via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 271-301, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Labys, Paul, 2002. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Working Papers 02-12, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Kim, Sangjoon & Shephard, Neil & Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 361-93, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Friedman, Moshe & Harris, Lawrence, 1998. "A Maximum Likelihood Approach for Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 284-91, July.
  11. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Eraker, Bjorn, 2001. "MCMC Analysis of Diffusion Models with Application to Finance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 177-91, April.
  13. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 371-89, October.
    Other versions:
  14. Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Forecasting the Variability of Stock Index Returns with Stochastic Volatility Models and Implied Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-104/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc and its associated services are free for contributors and users, and do not accept any advertising.

This page was last updated on 2008-10-3.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.