This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Jumps in cross-sectional rank and expected returns: a mixture model

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Gloria González-Rivera (Department of Economics, University of California, Riverside, CA USA)
Tae-Hwy Lee (Department of Economics, University of California, Riverside, CA USA)
Santosh Mishra (Department of Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA)
Abstract

We propose a new nonlinear time series model of expected returns based on the dynamics of the cross-sectional rank of realized returns. We model the joint dynamics of a sharp jump in the cross-sectional rank and the asset return by analyzing (1) the marginal probability distribution of a jump in the cross-sectional rank within the context of a duration model, and (2) the probability distribution of the asset return conditional on a jump, for which we specify different dynamics depending upon whether or not a jump has taken place. As a result, the expected returns are generated by a mixture of normal distributions weighted by the probability of jumping. The model is estimated for the weekly returns of the constituents of the SP500 index from 1990 to 2000, and its performance is assessed in an out-of-sample exercise from 2001 to 2005. Based on the one-step-ahead forecast of the mixture model we propose a trading rule, which is evaluated according to several forecast evaluation criteria and compared to 18 alternative trading rules. We find that the proposed trading strategy is the dominant rule by providing superior risk-adjusted mean trading returns and accurate value-at-risk forecasts. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.1015
File Format: text/html
File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2008-v23.5/
File Format: text/html
File Function: Supporting data files and programs
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 585-606
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:23:y:2008:i:5:p:585-606

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/jcatalog/subscribe.jsp?issn=0883-7252

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Yi-Ting Chen, 2008. "A unified approach to standardized-residuals-based correlation tests for GARCH-type models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 111-133. [Downloadable!]
  2. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
  3. Hong, Yongmiao & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 2003. "Diagnostic Checking For The Adequacy Of Nonlinear Time Series Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 1065-1121, December. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  5. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Authors can create their own profile with links to their works on the RePEc Author Service.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-21.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.