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External Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja

Abstract

To investigate the dynamic effect of external shocks on an oil exporting economy, we estimate, using Bayesian approach, a DSGE model based on the features of the Algerian economy. The main purpose is to investigate the dynamic effect of four external shocks (oil price shock, USD/EUR exchange rate shock, international inflation shock and international interest rate shock) and to examine the appropriate monetary policy strategy for Algerian economy, given its structural characteristics and the pattern of the external shocks. We analyze the impulse response functions of our external shocks according to alternative monetary rules. The welfare cost associated with each monetary policy rule has been considered. Our main findings show that, over the period 1990Q1-2010Q4, core inflation monetary rule allows better to stabilize both output and inflation. This rule also appears to be the best way to improve a social welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2011. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy," Working Papers hal-04140941, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04140941
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04140941
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.

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