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Inflated Expectations and Natural Resource Booms: Evidence from Kazakhstan

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  • Gerhard Toews
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    Abstract

    In this paper we identify the effect of an oil price boom on households' satisfaction with income. In a natural experiment the increase in the oil price is used as an exogenous shock affecting households located in the oil and gas rich region of Kazakhstan. to evaluate the effect we use the Household Budget Survery of Kazakhstan from 2001 to 2005, a quarterly, unbalanced panel of 12,000 households. An important feature of this survey is that household heads were asked to report their "satisfaction with household income" on a scale from 1 to 5. Our results suggest that a 10% increase in the oil price decreased household's satisfaction with income by 2% with a lag of two quarters. We argue that this is due to peoples' inflated expectations regarding their income. this result highlights the importance of managing expectations in a rapidly changing economic environment.

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    File URL: http://www.oxcarre.ox.ac.uk/files/OxCarreRP2013109.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford in its series OxCarre Working Papers with number 109.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:109

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    Keywords: Resource Booms; Conflicts; Reference Point Formation;

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    1. Caselli, Francesco & Michaels, Guy, 2009. "Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 7579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
    3. Kalyuzhnova, Yelena & Kambhampati, Uma, 2008. "The determinants of individual happiness in Kazakhstan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 285-299, September.
    4. Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell & Paul Frijters, 2004. "How Important is Methodology for the estimates of the determinants of Happiness?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 641-659, 07.
    5. Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2006. "Some Uses of Happiness Data in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, Winter.
    6. Sergei Guriev & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2007. "(Un)Happiness in Transition," Working Papers w0111, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    7. Boris Najman & Richard Pomfret & Gael Raballand & Patricia Sourdin, 2005. "How are Oil Revenues Redistributed in an Oil Economy? The Case of Kazakhstan," School of Economics Working Papers 2005-18, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    8. Michael McBride, 2007. "Money, Happiness, and Aspirations: An Experimental Study," Working Papers 060721, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008.
    9. Akram Esanov & Karlygash Khuralbayeva, 2010. "Riccardian Curse of the Resource Boom: The case of Kazakhstan 2000-2008," OxCarre Working Papers 043, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Easterlin, Richard A., 1995. "Will raising the incomes of all increase the happiness of all?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 35-47, June.
    11. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
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