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Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: Evidence from Portugal

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  • Ricardo M. Sousa

    ()
    (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)

  • António Afonso

    ()
    (European Central Bank, Directorate General Economics)

Abstract

Drawing on quarterly data for Portugal, we use a Three-Stage Least Square method and a system of equations to recursively estimate two components of fiscal policy - responsiveness and persistence - and to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). The results suggest that: (i) government spending exhibits higher persistence than government revenue; and (ii) government revenue is more responsive to the business cycle than government spending.

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File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2009/NIPE_WP_1_2009.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 1/2009.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:1/2009

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Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
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Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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Keywords: Fiscal deterioration; Portugal.;

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  1. Christophe Rault & Antonio Alfonso, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp893, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-146, February.
  3. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
  4. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2002. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Ricardo M. Sousa & António Afonso, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," NIPE Working Papers 22/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  7. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May.
  8. Antonio Afonso, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  9. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Fiscal Policy Responiveness, Persistence and Discretion," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/50, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  10. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  11. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
  12. Smith, Gregor W & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Persistent Deficits and the Market Value of Government Debt," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 31-44, Jan.-Marc.
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Cited by:
  1. António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/01, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  2. Natália P. Monteiro & Paulo Bastos, 2009. "Managers and wage policies," NIPE Working Papers 2/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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